Champions League · resolved market
Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-08-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9477d863a749bcb09006163a6456b3ccfbc96a9ddfcdb6566d57c622731347eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 41c | 6,030$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.92 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 38c | 4,445$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,744.04 | 704 | 35.8%252 W · 452 L | -27.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 27c | 3,496$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,546.51 | 881 | 37.7%332 W · 549 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 68c | 1,441$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.73 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed No | 31c | 1,344$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 43c | 1,186$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.25 | 433 | 33.5%145 W · 288 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 69c | 942$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.98 | 402 | 50.7%204 W · 198 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 69c | 942$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.73 | 489 | 47.6%233 W · 256 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 941.42$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.31 | 606 | 48.3%293 W · 313 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 68c | 816$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.88 | 415 | 53%220 W · 195 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 74c | 608$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.72 | 591 | 36.5%216 W · 375 L | -30.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed No | 26c | 540.53$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 411.49$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.93 | 594 | 41.8%248 W · 346 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ebd0backed No | 26c | 365.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 57c | 350.81$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.14 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 73c | 339.24$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 33c | 332.45$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.74 | 426 | 47.9%204 W · 222 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Yes | 34c | 315.11$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.97 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefd6…ca34backed No | 25c | 265.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 13c | 248.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.92 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 31c | 238.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.15 | 272 | 36.4%99 W · 173 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…a37fbacked No | 26c | 229.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d7…488cbacked No | 38c | 221.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Yes | 70c | 221$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 142 | 38%54 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 67c | 220$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 73c | 209.55$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 63c | 181.78$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 173 | 65.9%114 W · 59 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…fc66backed No | 79c | 167$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 66c | 166.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 69c | 165.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 49c | 109.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 67c | 103.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 72c | 99.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…b24abacked No | 73c | 78.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed No | 65c | 75.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 16c | 74.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…ffc3backed Yes | 32c | 71.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…3bc8backed Yes | 69c | 68.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 64c | 65.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 67c | 64.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked No | 78c | 57.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 68c | 57.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 224 | 52.2%117 W · 107 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 70c | 55.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed No | 72c | 55.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Yes | 28c | 55.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 54cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 75c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 233 | 52.8%123 W · 110 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…e401backed Yes | 32c | 39.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.37per pick | 51cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 64c | 35.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…a722backed No | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked No | 66c | 33.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Yes | 77c | 33.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 58c | 32.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03a…e2eabacked No | 69c | 31.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 67c | 30.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…1881backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed No | 69c | 22.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 67c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed No | 77c | 20.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 69c | 20.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc874…fd1abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 78c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 110 | 35.5%39 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Yes | 69c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 75c | 13.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477c…fe04backed Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA win on 2026-08-04?this page
- Will Ararat-Armenia FA vs. NK Celje end in a draw?No won
- Will NK Celje win on 2026-08-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.