College Football · resolved market
Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x682925d765fc616fe4ea3e7155687e289e9496402bbe10ddf5cb94b78d5180a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Stateof Georgia Southern, Arkansas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Arkansas State | 50c | 9,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Arkansas State | 52c | 6,099$3,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,954.08 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Georgia Southern | 50c | 5,710$2,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,855.28 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Georgia Southern | 49c | 4,507$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.63 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Georgia Southern | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Georgia Southern | 46c | 2,985$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.09 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Georgia Southern | 49c | 2,250$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.76 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Arkansas State | 50c | 1,784$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.06 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Georgia Southern | 49c | 1,750$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.5 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Arkansas State | 43c | 1,183$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.36 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Georgia Southern | 53c | 1,056$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.4 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Georgia Southern | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arkansas State | 52c | 947.6$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.16 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Arkansas State | 66c | 909.82$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.82 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Georgia Southern | 49c | 868.12$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.38 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Georgia Southern | 43c | 744.92$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.16 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Arkansas State | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Georgia Southern | 47c | 518$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.02 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…c28cbacked Georgia Southern | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…34a6backed Arkansas State | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Arkansas State | 50c | 369.92$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.96 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe012…d14bbacked Georgia Southern | 58c | 346.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…1aabbacked Georgia Southern | 39c | 311.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked Arkansas State | 54c | 310.64$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Arkansas State | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Arkansas State | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Arkansas State | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Arkansas State | 42c | 238.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Arkansas State | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Georgia Southern | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Arkansas State | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Arkansas State | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 157 | 34.4%54 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd01…d95bbacked Georgia Southern | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…7ecdbacked Arkansas State | 51c | 194$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Arkansas State | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Georgia Southern | 35c | 174.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Georgia Southern | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…c79abacked Georgia Southern | 76c | 144.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Georgia Southern | 49c | 134.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Arkansas State | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Georgia Southern | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…aa95backed Arkansas State | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79d…ca80backed Georgia Southern | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…3b47backed Arkansas State | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661b…1bc1backed Georgia Southern | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Arkansas State | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…280abacked Georgia Southern | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Georgia Southern | 48c | 98.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…947fbacked Arkansas State | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…0c7dbacked Georgia Southern | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5be…21f6backed Georgia Southern | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Georgia Southern | 69c | 93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Georgia Southern | 75c | 80.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…98c9backed Georgia Southern | 43c | 51.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Arkansas State | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Georgia Southern | 77c | 50.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed Georgia Southern | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Georgia Southern | 47c | 47.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Georgia Southern | 48c | 45.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Georgia Southern | 49c | 41.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…38c7backed Arkansas State | 53c | 40.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed Georgia Southern | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Georgia Southern | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdc…efadbacked Arkansas State | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…e323backed Georgia Southern | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…5adbbacked Arkansas State | 51c | 39.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d7…4d54backed Arkansas State | 51c | 39.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb3…18d2backed Georgia Southern | 50c | 39.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Arkansas State | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…71d4backed Georgia Southern | 50c | 37.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…15eabacked Georgia Southern | 78c | 33.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…25f9backed Arkansas State | 48c | 32.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…52eabacked Arkansas State | 53c | 23.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…0a44backed Georgia Southern | 48c | 23.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Georgia Southern | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…078cbacked Arkansas State | 53c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x434f…bf85backed Arkansas State | 56c | 18.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas Statethis page
- Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State: O/U 59.5Under won
- Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State: O/U 60.5Under won
- Spread: Arkansas State (-2.5)Arkansas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.