MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68f89644c2833757fc678c1ed27c77960af20a428a29dbe2002fe847a7d1158f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,655
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 49c | 208,887$102,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102,354.62 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 51c | 201,730$102,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98,852.41 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 51c | 6,609$3,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,238.65 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 48c | 1,619$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.04 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 644$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 49c | 507.67$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.76 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 497.16$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 52c | 420$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Over | 51c | 303$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.46 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 51c | 228$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 78c | 203.22$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…bd32backed Under | 45c | 200.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Over | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 49c | 189.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 50c | 185.27$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Over | 52c | 149.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 52c | 129$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 51c | 123.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 50c | 111.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 50c | 100.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 51c | 93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 88.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 51c | 80.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 59c | 72.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 49c | 69.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 55.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 51.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 38.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Under | 50c | 29.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 69c | 27.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-7.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.