NBA · resolved market
James Harden: Points O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x691ac94e13812c85fc382e669481d54d11f32572c433ede55eee60492aca6a84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 64c | 1,882$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.79 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa7…eb68backed Yes | 36c | 1,108$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Yes | 35c | 807.78$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 65c | 593.06$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.48 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 35c | 397.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Yes | 34c | 302.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 66c | 257.04$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 59c | 149.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…a6ddbacked Yes | 34c | 130.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…d1a4backed Yes | 34c | 86.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e0…9f88backed Yes | 34c | 81.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…6179backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c0fbacked Yes | 32c | 61.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +28.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 64c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Yes | 46c | 52.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3043…2cbbbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Yes | 26c | 45.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 67c | 44.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 56c | 39.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Yes | 50c | 30.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…817ebacked Yes | 40c | 29.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x043f…ca25backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Over won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Ron Holland II: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.