NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd0779558a16f45d1e13a4af0d22e27e93fa34f9d5aa1bfa7af8e5237b4d86ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Under | 50c | 19,773$9,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,886.3 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Under | 48c | 10,372$4,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,978.77 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 7,288$3,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,642.05 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 52c | 5,958$3,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.69 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…b299backed Over | 50c | 5,728$2,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,864 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 4,161$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.58 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 1,890$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 52c | 1,670$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.6 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 240 | 50.8%122 W · 118 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…c4e4backed Under | 53c | 949.79$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 54c | 927.32$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.32 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 785.58$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.37 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 51c | 588.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 47c | 445$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.85 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…b214backed Over | 52c | 384.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.59 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 53c | 299.29$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.09 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 254.81$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.31 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 50c | 246.96$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 239.91$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 40c | 222.9$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.51 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 213.66$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.82 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Under | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 59c | 193.81$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Over | 47c | 175$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 48c | 174.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Over | 50c | 152$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Over | 54c | 151.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 214 | 59.3%127 W · 87 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 127$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 47c | 120$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 49c | 119.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 58c | 118$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 104.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 92.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…e660backed Over | 52c | 67.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…5fd6backed Over | 50c | 63.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 37c | 60.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53e…1aa3backed Under | 50c | 57.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 50c | 56.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 47c | 52.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…70ccbacked Under | 49c | 50.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 50.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa30…c7abbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…dfb7backed Over | 53c | 35.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c83…3a66backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…7d23backed Over | 54c | 26.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 24.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d4…f7e0backed Under | 49c | 23.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 51c | 21.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf5…b8efbacked Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…39ccbacked Under | 69c | 15.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 9.5No won
- Cavaliers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Over won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Ron Holland II: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Sam Merrill: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.