TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Louisville Cardinals vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arkansas Razorbacksof Louisville Cardinals, Arkansas Razorbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$118,772
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,772 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Louisville Cardinals57c22,935$13,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,164.582,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Louisville Cardinals57c18,944$10,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,869.041,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks43c10,300$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,82090645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Louisville Cardinals50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00011662.1%72 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Louisville Cardinals57c7,474$4,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,26023243.5%101 W · 131 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Arkansas Razorbacks43c6,930$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,950.174649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Arkansas Razorbacks42c6,244$2,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,638.7535452.3%185 W · 169 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Arkansas Razorbacks43c5,500$2,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,135.0128539.6%113 W · 172 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Louisville Cardinals55c5,000$2,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,739.9930139.2%118 W · 183 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c4,413$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,412.872864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Arkansas Razorbacks46c4,346$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,345.853652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Arkansas Razorbacks50c4,174$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,089.169142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks42c3,687$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.0712,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks43c3,460$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.5125043.2%108 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x400f…e712backed Arkansas Razorbacks47c2,710$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Arkansas Razorbacks47c1,677$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.351637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Arkansas Razorbacks50c1,532$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.891,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Arkansas Razorbacks54c1,293$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.362,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks63c1,233$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.8723158.9%136 W · 95 L+23.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Arkansas Razorbacks75c1,187$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.2855657.4%319 W · 237 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Arkansas Razorbacks43c1,161$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.8425130.7%77 W · 174 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks43c1,032$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.294,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Louisville Cardinals17c1,019$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.76157.4%35 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Louisville Cardinals30c995.18$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.15,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Louisville Cardinals22c890$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.422640.7%92 W · 134 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Louisville Cardinals21c862.6$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.451,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks44c859$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.0412853.1%68 W · 60 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Louisville Cardinals32c808$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.52,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Arkansas Razorbacks46c800.65$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.4511439.5%45 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Louisville Cardinals21c716.67$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1498643%37 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Arkansas Razorbacks43c700$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39935243.2%152 W · 200 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Arkansas Razorbacks74c658.85$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.733,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Louisville Cardinals13c652.22$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.591,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Arkansas Razorbacks44c579.32$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.861,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks57c577.76$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.495,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Louisville Cardinals17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0395…c9edbacked Louisville Cardinals48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-60.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Louisville Cardinals61c493.08$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.781,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks43c460$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.82,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Louisville Cardinals45c450$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20417051.2%87 W · 83 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Arkansas Razorbacks44c436.23$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.297145.1%32 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Arkansas Razorbacks41c373.4$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.311258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Arkansas Razorbacks41c319.88$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.012,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Arkansas Razorbacks69c288.41$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.41944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed Arkansas Razorbacks41c258.62$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.87837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Arkansas Razorbacks43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.52347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bd9…9ef5backed Louisville Cardinals55c250$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks41c231.48$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.6152928.4%150 W · 379 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20e4…b96fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c230.3$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.361637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+31%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52dd…ed91backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c220.04$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.16540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Arkansas Razorbacks41c200.05$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0317650.6%89 W · 87 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Arkansas Razorbacks39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12282048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Louisville Cardinals20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019238.5%74 W · 118 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2862…b2ddbacked Louisville Cardinals58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610939.4%43 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Louisville Cardinals58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12229444.6%131 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Arkansas Razorbacks73c147.23$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.541,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Louisville Cardinals58c122.14$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.457626.3%20 W · 56 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Louisville Cardinals35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3515442.9%66 W · 88 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Arkansas Razorbacks44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5634947.9%167 W · 182 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Louisville Cardinals15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5564322.9%147 W · 496 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Louisville Cardinals56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Louisville Cardinals59c95$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.053847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a4b…5f8bbacked Louisville Cardinals17c88.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f02…1505backed Louisville Cardinals60c87$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Arkansas Razorbacks77c70.05$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9445644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Louisville Cardinals58c69.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011055.5%61 W · 49 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Arkansas Razorbacks42c68.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7950546.9%237 W · 268 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dfc…10f7backed Louisville Cardinals45c60.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Arkansas Razorbacks44c56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.361,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Arkansas Razorbacks64c53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.172,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08d4…03dcbacked Arkansas Razorbacks68c52.76$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Arkansas Razorbacks43c52.25$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7810037%37 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Louisville Cardinals55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d8…0074backed Arkansas Razorbacks41c46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.457061.4%43 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd64…c090backed Louisville Cardinals58c43.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9df…645ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks39c41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb6…94f5backed Louisville Cardinals58c38.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Arkansas Razorbacks41c37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8321455.6%119 W · 95 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Louisville Cardinals43c30.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8639…fb86backed Louisville Cardinals35c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.517740.7%72 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c82…05cfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.513343.6%58 W · 75 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ce…2972backed Arkansas Razorbacks50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b0…4e10backed Arkansas Razorbacks44c28.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x816c…02c5backed Louisville Cardinals58c28.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c23.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7919055.3%105 W · 85 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.