Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69a0f5b9b58af3441791d23cdb9458f6d21ecf9bb6d6255f38268ee7d4281b88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c1…7047backed No | 56c | 6,977$3,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,082.71 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 48c | 3,498$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.9 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 47c | 2,690$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.48 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 22c | 2,635$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.43 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 43c | 1,485$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.68 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked No | 77c | 1,277$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed No | 76c | 936.32$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 52c | 861.8$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.03 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 758.4$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.67 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Yes | 21c | 687.14$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.87 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 44c | 622.17$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.37 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…145cbacked Yes | 49c | 609.34$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 17c | 558.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 22c | 497.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 47c | 494.92$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.44 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…8ad8backed Yes | 41c | 470.54$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4283…fbd4backed No | 76c | 394.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Yes | 41c | 391.09$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 58c | 350.29$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.42 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Yes | 58c | 336.14$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.96 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 47c | 328.83$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.18 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 48c | 298.53$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.85 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 45c | 282.77$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.39 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Yes | 45c | 268.38$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.86 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 45c | 268.31$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 45c | 267.24$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 218.88$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed No | 55c | 214.06$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 25c | 181.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 44c | 178.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed No | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 41c | 129.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 58c | 128.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…fe57backed No | 61c | 109.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 33c | 102.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 48c | 101.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 52c | 99.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked No | 52c | 99.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 49c | 99.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 54c | 97.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed No | 54c | 97.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 25c | 92.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 52c | 90.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…7bd7backed No | 33c | 87.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48f6…3f8abacked Yes | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 23c | 80.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…dab4backed Yes | 46c | 73.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 28c | 64.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 47c | 63.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x208b…9613backed Yes | 46c | 63.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed No | 60c | 60.51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 52c | 57.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Yes | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…9a43backed Yes | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 53c | 50.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Yes | 41c | 42.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75a…b549backed No | 54c | 39.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Yes | 46c | 39.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Yes | 67c | 38.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 47c | 35.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Yes | 71c | 32.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Yes | 71c | 32.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Yes | 71c | 32.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Yes | 71c | 32.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 67c | 32.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 52c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Yes | 41c | 28.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed No | 54c | 23.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 58c | 21.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 58c | 21.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Yes | 58c | 21.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked No | 54c | 19.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…975abacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-12?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.