Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7c31780f4012c0d59738e2f7cc30ec1a0fff25202c794bc1a57ea387edfddf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 2,063$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 65c | 1,707$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.28 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 33c | 1,582$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.3 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…6fc0backed No | 64c | 1,174$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.67 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 32c | 1,079$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.06 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,001$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes | 36c | 796.5$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 667.03$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 561.08$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.27 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 35c | 399.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 27c | 359.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 6c | 326.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Yes | 37c | 253.19$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 36c | 219.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c6…3c48backed Yes | 22c | 190.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed No | 80c | 96.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 30c | 87.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 66c | 82.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 70c | 80.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 36c | 80.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 69c | 78.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 68c | 78.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…f2b7backed Yes | 35c | 67.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 28c | 64.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 20c | 60.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…8d7ebacked Yes | 27c | 58.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 73c | 56.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 28c | 55.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 73c | 55.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 69c | 54.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed Yes | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 28c | 45.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 40c | 40.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 69c | 30.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 39c | 30.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 73c | 29.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 64c | 25.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked No | 64c | 25.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…975abacked No | 66c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 72c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-04-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.