TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karmine Corpof Karmine Corp, GIANTX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$983,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,288,630

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $983,129 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x40ea…832fbacked Karmine Corp33c300,000$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199,999.9220339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked GIANTX67c191,597$128,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128,366.8355955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked GIANTX68c184,799$125,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125,495.414448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Karmine Corp32c111,000$35,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,480.2327735.7%99 W · 178 L-12.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed GIANTX66c99,347$65,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,569.251,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Karmine Corp32c60,249$19,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,969.5951146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Karmine Corp33c52,362$17,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,082.7833838.2%129 W · 209 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed GIANTX67c50,000$33,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,50014247.2%67 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked GIANTX66c32,407$21,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,545.6612036.7%44 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Karmine Corp32c15,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,199.991,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Karmine Corp32c14,675$4,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,926.1490348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked Karmine Corp36c12,281$4,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,885.782085%17 W · 3 L+7.1wins+0.36per pick49cpaid+82.5%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed GIANTX67c11,100$7,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,436.9916356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Karmine Corp34c10,000$3,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,61067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed GIANTX66c7,156$4,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,723.121,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked GIANTX67c6,000$4,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0209853.1%52 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Karmine Corp70c5,541$3,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.898453.6%45 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked GIANTX64c5,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20044550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed GIANTX64c4,461$2,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.1359554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Karmine Corp34c4,361$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,895.43540%14 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Karmine Corp32c4,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.91,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked GIANTX66c3,667$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.066861.8%42 W · 26 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+26.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked GIANTX65c3,554$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,309.8996048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Karmine Corp33c3,333$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.111,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked GIANTX68c3,224$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19217647.7%84 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Karmine Corp32c3,200$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1761,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14cd…cec1backed GIANTX45c3,072$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.276235.5%22 W · 40 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Karmine Corp33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,01015046%69 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Karmine Corp48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5609248.9%45 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Karmine Corp34c2,906$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,917.732145.5%146 W · 175 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Karmine Corp33c2,815$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.9348742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Karmine Corp34c2,500$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6501533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed Karmine Corp34c2,324$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.5319232.8%63 W · 129 L-17.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd3c7…d601backed Karmine Corp48c2,087$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.984100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+219.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Karmine Corp33c2,011$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.9724650%123 W · 123 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed GIANTX66c1,965$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.0932941%135 W · 194 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed GIANTX67c1,675$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.9952848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked GIANTX66c1,495$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.888652.3%45 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked GIANTX67c1,493$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010049%49 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f7c…171bbacked Karmine Corp35c1,488$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked GIANTX68c1,471$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+150.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cec…d241backed Karmine Corp34c1,471$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.593560%21 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x27ea…863dbacked GIANTX51c1,376$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.896631.8%21 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Karmine Corp32c1,072$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.9629952.2%156 W · 143 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed GIANTX62c1,069$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.5832755.7%182 W · 145 L+17.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed GIANTX66c1,061$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70086144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa11…e3c0backed Karmine Corp38c1,053$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.637335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Karmine Corp37c1,003$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63263546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed GIANTX65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed GIANTX68c999.99$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.9985746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Karmine Corp35c999.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.991,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed GIANTX66c999.97$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.9837647.9%180 W · 196 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed GIANTX32c993.05$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.151,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b7…1454backed GIANTX52c961.77$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed GIANTX66c910$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.630151.5%155 W · 146 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked GIANTX68c888$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.8414352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Karmine Corp34c866.13$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.482842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked GIANTX62c842.24$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.191,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf64f…9f48backed GIANTX51c758.94$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.066230.6%19 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked GIANTX67c699.99$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.9921150.7%107 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Karmine Corp38c658.92$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.9243640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Karmine Corp33c646.94$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.2737640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Karmine Corp34c609.57$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.061631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf19…79bbbacked Karmine Corp38c579.59$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.5916858.9%99 W · 69 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d46…b09bbacked GIANTX68c549.99$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.999160.4%55 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed GIANTX66c535.45$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.3949549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732c…08dbbacked GIANTX54c512.13$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2762142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Karmine Corp19c499.99$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40524554.7%134 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Karmine Corp32c499.96$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.9741343.8%181 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked GIANTX50c473.21$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.978050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Karmine Corp33c466.67$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.6746552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb441…f757backed Karmine Corp32c420$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.210959.6%65 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Karmine Corp25c399.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.991,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5999…bdbebacked GIANTX68c364.44$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.826065%39 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ae…aa0fbacked GIANTX56c358.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002763%17 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Karmine Corp31c324.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.2569841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Karmine Corp33c315.91$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.662,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdad…fb9ebacked Karmine Corp34c303.91$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.681323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed GIANTX67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018055%44 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ee…45cebacked Karmine Corp34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1988840.9%36 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca5…4342backed Karmine Corp44c300$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed GIANTX67c299.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.9934960.2%210 W · 139 L+1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x592c…2824backed Karmine Corp48c269.83$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.312050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9693…1c29backed GIANTX64c266$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.24366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed Karmine Corp47c243.75$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.1952045%234 W · 286 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa5ac…e602backed Karmine Corp34c230.03$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.821060%6 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+75.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked GIANTX66c230$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.820154.7%110 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked GIANTX67c223.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f76…3c44backed Karmine Corp33c213.39$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.532240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed GIANTX67c212.99$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.79746.4%45 W · 52 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Karmine Corp34c212.26$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.682944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e93…eb10backed GIANTX76c209.15$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62be…444cbacked Karmine Corp48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.338350.6%42 W · 41 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae4…e4a2backed Karmine Corp33c206.73$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.511346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+49.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f48…a145backed Karmine Corp33c204.08$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.731533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Karmine Corp50c200.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2848353.4%258 W · 225 L-19.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Karmine Corp22c200$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.091,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82cf…3d55backed Karmine Corp33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13410240.2%41 W · 61 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7210…4bb5backed GIANTX68c199.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9912446.8%58 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked GIANTX52c195.59$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5423948.1%115 W · 124 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.