Europa Conference League · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a3b06a6ad345f20448d3509d9fecc9ca9495b0c3d5c0401a67b0fea2e90cf25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 7,700$3,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,244.96 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583e…a2a6backed No | 56c | 5,000$2,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,775 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712e…0485backed No | 56c | 4,506$2,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 44c | 4,463$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.07 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8762…0d85backed No | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 54c | 1,813$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.21 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 42c | 576.65$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.25 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…ffddbacked No | 60c | 333.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 59c | 169.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 55c | 129.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789f…3e7dbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 45c | 94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 53c | 59.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Yes | 44c | 41.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +10.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 49c | 38.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 51c | 36.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 45c | 34.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked No | 51c | 33.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 59c | 33.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 33.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed No | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…e85dbacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +69%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Yes | 47c | 26.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Yes | 45c | 25.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.