Europa Conference League · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5281085f0388398b1efc89a7ca4c77ab4a1e855aa61b9321ed31b133a86349aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 15,900$5,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,307.39 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 72c | 10,615$7,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,024.95 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 62c | 6,174$3,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.78 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Over | 43c | 3,017$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 2,119$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.28 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Under | 22c | 1,432$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.69 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…5e86backed Over | 45c | 1,320$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 29c | 1,036$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.09 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Over | 50c | 1,030$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…c161backed Over | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b43…0f61backed Under | 48c | 910$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 53c | 787.15$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.97 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 27c | 741.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.85 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 68c | 737.13$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.14 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 79c | 645.47$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.92 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 78c | 574.32$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.86 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +305.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a4…adadbacked Over | 42c | 534.32$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…afcebacked Under | 46c | 523.88$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 33c | 512$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.96 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Over | 49c | 434.16$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 34c | 367.69$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 54c | 367.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.25 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 22c | 345.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.22 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 32c | 336.28$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.35 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 70c | 304.23$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 30c | 274$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…a899backed Over | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…428abacked Under | 53c | 257.36$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 16c | 253.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…b081backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…4b00backed Over | 41c | 183.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…92c1backed Under | 66c | 177.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Under | 49c | 154.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 141.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 11c | 141.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Over | 76c | 133.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 34c | 125.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 53c | 125.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 26c | 115.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 56c | 110.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 18c | 97.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 68c | 92.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 37c | 78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 31c | 75.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 51c | 73.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6102…7661backed Over | 48c | 73.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 71c | 69.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 69c | 64.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…2fc0backed Over | 23c | 62.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 69c | 58.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 37c | 54.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 69c | 51.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…3d5dbacked Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 56c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Under | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…5fcfbacked Over | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 45c | 42.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 62c | 42.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 32c | 42.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 67c | 38.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 53c | 36.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 73c | 34.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Under | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 33c | 33.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Under | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed Under | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 56c | 27.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…cf92backed Over | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…7d35backed Under | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.