Europa Conference League · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf87c96e282e3e24087a010cba93af303cfdb28fcab8418f57e91a8d27d74395
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 24c | 2,810$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.46 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 2,125$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.16 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 73c | 1,997$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.76 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 71c | 1,775$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.25 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…35d7backed Over | 72c | 1,158$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 832.62$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.87 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 28c | 664.47$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.73 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 29c | 512$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 28c | 392.92$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 27c | 382.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 75c | 308.59$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 73c | 262.26$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 13c | 243.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 12c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…b7f9backed Over | 74c | 152.85$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 27c | 147.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 25c | 145.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…ecbebacked Under | 29c | 98.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 26c | 69.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 28c | 47.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x884b…c480backed Over | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 27c | 40.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 29c | 39.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf50…480fbacked Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f65…ec56backed Over | 71c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…f9b0backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 76cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.