Europa Conference League · resolved market
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9671d67f8d3e1975e526c6848e149dd4a499be3a9b7d1339583f21804b54308c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 8,666$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.36 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 60c | 8,232$4,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,292.5 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…5e86backed Over | 58c | 2,581$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 68c | 1,400$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.98 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 53c | 1,199$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.74 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 70c | 1,122$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.6 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 688.22$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.67 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Under | 73c | 547.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.95 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Under | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 65c | 270.62$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.45 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 18c | 233.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…b081backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 72c | 174.66$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 55c | 167.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbe…ccebbacked Over | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 64c | 160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 28c | 156.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 38c | 149.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 16c | 148.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 125.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…eac6backed Over | 17c | 115.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 79c | 92.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…5225backed Over | 58c | 70.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…c701backed Over | 70c | 68.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 72c | 41.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 72c | 41.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 76 | 77.6%59 W · 17 L | +13.5wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 72c | 41.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 72c | 41.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 33c | 40.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +10.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…0242backed Under | 30c | 40.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…54b7backed Under | 28c | 38.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…60c6backed Over | 70c | 34.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 68c | 33.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 78c | 31.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Over | 70c | 30.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 68c | 20.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb111…393ebacked Over | 61c | 17.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 5.5this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.