Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb2a3730cece05b63b18163732ca30d4ff9998447f43176d3463947b73d8247e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sport Lisboa e Benficaof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Aarhus GF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 69c | 2,889$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Aarhus GF | 26c | 1,856$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.09 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.28 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Aarhus GF | 44c | 1,199$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.21 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Aarhus GF | 32c | 1,190$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.07 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 67c | 1,176$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.19 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 60cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Aarhus GF | 14c | 1,169$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.14 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ed…8db7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 56c | 1,127$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 69c | 718.28$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.67 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Aarhus GF | 31c | 664.83$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.83 | 1,037 | 46.1%478 W · 559 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Aarhus GF | 32c | 652.07$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.43 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Aarhus GF | 39c | 635.9$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.95 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aarhus GF | 22c | 594.48$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.84 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 69c | 507.87$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 69c | 405.77$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.79 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…c161backed Aarhus GF | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f8…0108backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 68c | 227.94$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aarhus GF | 34c | 188.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 571 | 49.6%283 W · 288 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 63c | 170.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…415abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 65c | 153.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…60d6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…4c3cbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d1…f7abbacked Aarhus GF | 31c | 118$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 69c | 114.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Aarhus GF | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 482 | 49.8%240 W · 242 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Aarhus GF | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Aarhus GF | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Aarhus GF | 35c | 88.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 256 | 41%105 W · 151 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 68c | 88.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 68c | 85.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Aarhus GF | 33c | 81.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Aarhus GF | 38c | 75.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 68c | 74.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 1,026 | 47.4%486 W · 540 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7953…9fd1backed Aarhus GF | 31c | 72.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Aarhus GF | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Aarhus GF | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b11…6f75backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Aarhus GF | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked Aarhus GF | 32c | 53.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…534bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 69c | 51.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Aarhus GF | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Aarhus GF | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 371 | 43.7%162 W · 209 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…248abacked Aarhus GF | 32c | 32.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 69c | 32.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 68c | 31.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 658 | 35.6%234 W · 424 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…4b28backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 65c | 30.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Aarhus GF | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 61c | 24.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 67c | 24.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…a568backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 68c | 20.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -20.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -42%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)this page
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Aarhus GF: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.