Asian League · resolved market
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a52243b70dc8deefca65fa8c22a36ca74f9cd9714dfe006b13edd7c67ab19ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $184,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa796…82fdbacked Over | 54c | 33,000$17,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,179.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 30,989$15,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,382.45 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 9,062$4,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,921.04 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Over | 32c | 5,138$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,476.21 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.94 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 46c | 3,622$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.73 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 59c | 1,470$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.31 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 58c | 999.94$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.97 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed Over | 31c | 961.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.95 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 35c | 789.82$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.38 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 45c | 650$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 530.51$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.62 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 55c | 500.69$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.15 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd710…cf6fbacked Under | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d3…bb0abacked Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…bca7backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 34c | 329.56$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Over | 31c | 316.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Over | 67c | 313.43$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Under | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 46c | 303$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Under | 57c | 302.07$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.16 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 34c | 294.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.26 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac9…14e8backed Over | 61c | 278.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 47c | 278.02$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.53 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 49c | 271.95$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.27 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 71c | 226.39$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Under | 46c | 209.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87e4…e722backed Over | 76c | 193.19$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…69dbbacked Over | 56c | 190.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 171.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 63c | 158.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 65c | 150.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…896cbacked Under | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 32c | 149.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 46c | 149.74$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 31c | 141.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 52c | 137.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 42c | 118.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 50c | 115.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 65c | 108.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 49c | 102.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 48c | 86.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 52c | 84.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f5…5107backed Over | 35c | 82.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf7…3412backed Under | 52c | 76.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 34c | 74.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 56c | 71.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 48c | 69.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 66c | 69.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 52c | 58.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…ba99backed Under | 68c | 54.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Over | 58c | 51.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a4…6f3abacked Under | 51c | 50.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Under | 49c | 50.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed Under | 69c | 47.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 46c | 38.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…cc32backed Over | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Under | 46c | 36.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Under | 47c | 35.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked Under | 46c | 35.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 42c | 29.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6690…e6efbacked Under | 58c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5671…97c9backed Over | 63c | 23.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5this page
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Machida Zelvia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Kashima Antlers vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.