Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a7216937e3188cc957c2e8ec85b6be7cc48ce895510d239c3e4e3bbfc971e1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 314.08$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.47 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 303.61$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 219.04$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 201.59$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 28c | 199.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 34c | 170.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 136.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 113.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 111.23$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed Yes | 29c | 108.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 72c | 83.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 33c | 75.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 31c | 64.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 55.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 54.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 68c | 53.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 49.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 46.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 46.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed No | 75c | 44.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 23c | 44.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd971…f3c1backed Yes | 34c | 42.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 27c | 39.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 27c | 39.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 25.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…b219backed No | 78c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 66c | 22.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 18.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.