Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9a762e5c9d0a17d4539b8322c2dc8f85aceeef5887da846b487032c89cbb2d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 733.54$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.96 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 672.77$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 246$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 208.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 201.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 191.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 168.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 63c | 166.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 155.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.97 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 131.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 124.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 33c | 120.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 67c | 114.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 97.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 97.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 78.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 22c | 73.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 73c | 68.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 23c | 64.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 58.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 58.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 56c | 56.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 52.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…7a3ebacked No | 46c | 48.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 30c | 47.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 44.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 33c | 43.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 32c | 40.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 39.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 31c | 35.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 50c | 33.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 42c | 33.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 27.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 65c | 27.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 56c | 23.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…c63cbacked No | 44c | 23.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 17.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 70c | 17.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 15.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.