Champions League · resolved market
NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a96632ca4db558f8ff863a4aa91bbaf1929cdfac1aa6dfe38f1e24e196550b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd09…8974backed Over | 0c | 49,499$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 21c | 1,053$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.01 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 22c | 1,000$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.84 | 214 | 60.7%130 W · 84 L | +21.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 4c | 939.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 80c | 791.12$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.57 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 21c | 313$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 19c | 96.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed Over | 19c | 92.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 21c | 62.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 79c | 62.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 601 | 36.9%222 W · 379 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…674cbacked Under | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 74c | 34.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 29.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 78c | 29.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 4.5this page
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë O/U 0.5Over won
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 0.5Over won
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 1.5Over won
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 2.5Under won
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 3.5Under won
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: O/U 5.5Under won
- NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë: Team to AdvanceNK Celje won
- Spread: KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë (-1.5)NK Celje won
- Spread: NK Celje (-1.5)KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë won
- Spread: NK Celje (-2.5)KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.