Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ac5b92668684c970cd99c3673ee6ba2a0e4bd968353f5dff33dc5fa3831e7cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 411.04$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 49c | 400.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.78 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 32c | 380.71$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.67 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 41c | 307$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.39 | 40 | 97.5%39 W · 1 L | +16.9wins | +0.42per pick | 55cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 62c | 245$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 32c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 172.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 170.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 145$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 142.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 39c | 142$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 119.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 104.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 101.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 100.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…651fbacked No | 36c | 95.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 54c | 95.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 91.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 89.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 46c | 77.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 72c | 68.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 63c | 61.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…1d04backed No | 65c | 61.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 60.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 74c | 49.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 30c | 46.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 45.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 66c | 38.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 35.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 65c | 31.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 29.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 26.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…5403backed Yes | 76c | 25.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 51c | 20.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 75c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…a686backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 74c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.