Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ac5bcdad7c227257f68f1a991a83ab798eec0c6b3c0571c96a214ec15486e67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 7,979$3,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,989.28 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Over | 52c | 5,344$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 3,229$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.89 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Under | 47c | 2,132$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.04 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Over | 50c | 1,952$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 25c | 1,158$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.62 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 28c | 899.39$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.84 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Over | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…4030backed Over | 50c | 316.4$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.2 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Over | 50c | 241.2$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c8…2313backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…be99backed Over | 51c | 149.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 60c | 137.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Over | 25c | 127.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…12f5backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Over | 17c | 108.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Over | 50c | 101.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…8919backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c24…0f25backed Over | 51c | 79.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…cfcbbacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 51c | 66.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 49c | 64.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 49c | 54.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Over | 26c | 51.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 43.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…e128backed Under | 51c | 41.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Over | 50c | 39.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Over | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 311 | 43.4%135 W · 176 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce7…9cacbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 50c | 37.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Under | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Over | 50c | 34.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…0950backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336d…7c73backed Over | 51c | 28.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…6f2cbacked Over | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 49c | 27.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…aeeabacked Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Under | 51c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…1347backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -7.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…d827backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40aa…b09cbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- First Blood in Game 1?Team Spirit won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: IW (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.