Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: IW (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaceadd871721609848cd9ccabab6a3d142bdfd6e88e2699000692de2d6413a2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Iron Wing, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7819…bdb0backed Team Spirit | 72c | 17,019$12,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,765.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Iron Wing | 28c | 16,869$4,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,723.28 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Iron Wing | 29c | 8,253$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.3 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 6,771$4,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.37 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Team Spirit | 73c | 1,658$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.67 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Team Spirit | 76c | 1,168$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.76 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7d…df55backed Team Spirit | 74c | 743.24$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Iron Wing | 26c | 618.03$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Team Spirit | 73c | 554.83$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.8 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Iron Wing | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Iron Wing | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Iron Wing | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 324 | 41.7%135 W · 189 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Team Spirit | 74c | 500$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Team Spirit | 74c | 474.69$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.07 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Iron Wing | 26c | 449.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Iron Wing | 26c | 404$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Iron Wing | 27c | 400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…b8f1backed Team Spirit | 74c | 306.5$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…d609backed Team Spirit | 72c | 280$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Iron Wing | 30c | 233.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 222 | 60.4%134 W · 88 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Iron Wing | 30c | 201$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Iron Wing | 26c | 179.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Iron Wing | 27c | 168.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…b18ebacked Team Spirit | 70c | 147.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked Team Spirit | 73c | 131.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Iron Wing | 27c | 121.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Iron Wing | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Team Spirit | 73c | 118.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…8d00backed Iron Wing | 27c | 118.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Iron Wing | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Iron Wing | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Iron Wing | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Iron Wing | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72da…9b77backed Iron Wing | 27c | 88.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Spirit | 75c | 85.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f0…a328backed Team Spirit | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed Team Spirit | 80c | 76.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…ac21backed Iron Wing | 27c | 59.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Iron Wing | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…c02ebacked Team Spirit | 73c | 52.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0f…3656backed Team Spirit | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Iron Wing | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Iron Wing | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Iron Wing | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ef…186bbacked Team Spirit | 74c | 43.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Spirit | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Team Spirit | 73c | 22.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3218…b696backed Team Spirit | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…aeeabacked Team Spirit | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d29…872abacked Team Spirit | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Spirit | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: IW (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- First Blood in Game 1?Team Spirit won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.