Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6af9a20b6704021125720b954335041a0badfcebfbaf3a9b9392b61bd42e06ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 60c | 1,915$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.21 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 992.36$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 22c | 495.88$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.43 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed No | 29c | 404.86$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 389.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.38 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 382.29$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 370.62$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 339.32$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 34c | 304.18$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 265.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 5c | 263.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 9c | 224.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.84 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 35c | 206.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…0284backed Yes | 24c | 201.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 198.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 12c | 195.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.05 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 23c | 193.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.33 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…5ec3backed Yes | 27c | 182.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 174.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 13c | 158.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.85 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 157$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d7…7689backed Yes | 16c | 154.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 11c | 149.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 143.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 135.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 42c | 122.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 38c | 118.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 38c | 115.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 115.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 80c | 106.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 102.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 87.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 78c | 85.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 80.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 76.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 66c | 74.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed No | 75c | 69.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 72c | 62.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 57.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 51c | 47.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd3…bee3backed Yes | 67c | 47.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 44.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 75c | 42.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 77c | 38.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 32c | 36.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 34c | 33.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 32.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…1f00backed Yes | 49c | 26.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…b333backed Yes | 78c | 25.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde86…f015backed Yes | 79c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 24.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…92bbbacked Yes | 55c | 23.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 79c | 20.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 19.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.