TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Colorado Rapids SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,079 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over11c3,494$375 inLost-$374.8199340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…b629backed Over20c1,740$353 inLost-$352.834062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.7wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+40.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x153a…af29backed Over17c1,740$296 inLost-$296.412860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under80c1,333$1,066 inWon+$266.692346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over12c613.05$74 inLost-$73.5752639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Over16c532.54$86 inLost-$86.423148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over7c300.53$21 inLost-$21.043,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed Over18c285.25$51 inLost-$512770.4%19 W · 8 L+5.9wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+71.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over13c284.83$36 inLost-$35.7136247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over18c275.95$51 inLost-$51.0552923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over17c223$38 inLost-$37.9126450%132 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under77c218.89$169 inWon+$50.2323953.6%128 W · 111 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Under78c199.97$156 inWon+$43.997045.7%32 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under79c152.73$120 inWon+$32.6980249.8%399 W · 403 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccc…a5d5backed Over19c127.89$25 inLost-$24.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over13c124.02$16 inLost-$16.1271443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over18c122.54$22 inLost-$21.8939435.8%141 W · 253 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over12c119.16$14 inLost-$14.191,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Over18c111.11$20 inLost-$202123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Over16c85.71$14 inLost-$13.7120043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Over22c49.02$11 inLost-$10.786653%35 W · 31 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1947…32c1backed Over22c46.27$10 inLost-$10.18560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b9…c40bbacked Over25c44$11 inLost-$111926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0bfd…e3fcbacked Under77c16$12 inWon+$3.681070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Under77c16$12 inWon+$3.683250%16 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.