CS2 · resolved market
BLAST Bounty: paiN vs. The MongolZ
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b78ff2260d3fc1f1f7661b8f8d0374019f601d40d59f6be99d86770bd59e195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- The MongolZof paiN, The MongolZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed paiN | 15c | 14,077$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117.59 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked paiN | 26c | 5,466$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.41 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…504cbacked The MongolZ | 77c | 4,118$3,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.18 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…1742backed paiN | 27c | 3,741$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed paiN | 23c | 3,443$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed paiN | 24c | 2,116$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.75 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…35c7backed The MongolZ | 78c | 1,667$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.67 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed paiN | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 105 | 38.1%40 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed paiN | 23c | 1,490$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.53 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed The MongolZ | 73c | 1,362$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.47 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed paiN | 19c | 1,182$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed paiN | 26c | 1,100$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed The MongolZ | 76c | 1,098$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.54 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed The MongolZ | 77c | 1,056$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.64 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked The MongolZ | 75c | 1,009$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.35 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked paiN | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed paiN | 23c | 999.59$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.69 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked paiN | 23c | 995.49$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.96 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed The MongolZ | 80c | 989.5$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.9 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked The MongolZ | 74c | 804.05$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 59cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked The MongolZ | 75c | 745.08$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.27 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…62ccbacked paiN | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed paiN | 13c | 708.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked paiN | 22c | 700$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed The MongolZ | 78c | 665.4$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.34 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed paiN | 15c | 650$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2747…14c3backed The MongolZ | 73c | 548$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked The MongolZ | 77c | 519.48$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed paiN | 27c | 518.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed paiN | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked The MongolZ | 74c | 499.98$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked The MongolZ | 73c | 478$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.06 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed paiN | 14c | 444$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked The MongolZ | 72c | 399.99$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed The MongolZ | 75c | 398.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.29 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked paiN | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked The MongolZ | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed paiN | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 233 | 51.5%120 W · 113 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed The MongolZ | 80c | 263.16$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed paiN | 28c | 232.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…c747backed The MongolZ | 80c | 210$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed The MongolZ | 75c | 206.11$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed The MongolZ | 74c | 205.41$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked paiN | 17c | 203.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed paiN | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed paiN | 28c | 167.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed paiN | 28c | 155.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 225 | 56%126 W · 99 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed paiN | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed paiN | 16c | 143.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…db1bbacked paiN | 18c | 136.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed The MongolZ | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed The MongolZ | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked The MongolZ | 74c | 127.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c7…0b56backed paiN | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked paiN | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…57efbacked paiN | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed paiN | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…11febacked paiN | 20c | 89.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed paiN | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x107a…4bc4backed paiN | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786c…dd20backed The MongolZ | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 219 | 42.5%93 W · 126 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…0c2cbacked paiN | 17c | 63.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed paiN | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked The MongolZ | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed paiN | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed The MongolZ | 80c | 47.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked The MongolZ | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked The MongolZ | 78c | 39.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked The MongolZ | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…0a71backed The MongolZ | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…f5c4backed The MongolZ | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.