TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,359
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,695

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,359 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f64…9600backed Yes1c2,005$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes50c2,003$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.2210539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No41c1,122$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.281,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes65c442.96$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.795,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes53c399.97$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.848,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No30c275$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.614,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes63c267.44$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.54,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No35c244.5$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1594,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No50c238$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1197443.2%32 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No43c228.52$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.892,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes57c220$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.543,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes41c215$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1531454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes55c212.31$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.421,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes29c208.56$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.484,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1022,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes6c195.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.96,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No27c195$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.151,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c186.12$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No49c173.75$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.751,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No47c148.48$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0327056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c139.46$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.725,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No59c126.83$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.612,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No43c122.61$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1135344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c113.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No49c111$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.612,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes56c105$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3225954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes59c105$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9512351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No29c101.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.865,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No40c100.84$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2858152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5644448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6842643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No40c91.64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3248743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No20c90.74$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.91,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No40c88.36$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1230442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes59c85.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1175546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes47c74.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd46e…11f4backed Yes60c70$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No46c65.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1690555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes53c64.02$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.231,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No21c62.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5457948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No41c56.48$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No25c55.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.74,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c52.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No20c52.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4258358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.281,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2530849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2942547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0657…d0b7backed No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3a…cf77backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2515545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x01e3…c67fbacked No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1414…866abacked No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2510147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0aa5…c42fbacked No50c49.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes59c48.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No39c46.64$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes78c46.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.373836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+68.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes65c46.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010746.7%50 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No23c45.38$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.081,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes45c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.846148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No25c43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.35,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes54c42.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.951,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No43c40.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.284,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c40.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.837,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2115950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No49c39.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes52c38.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes37c32.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.762,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes45c31.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.129948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes65c30.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.766735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c2…c908backed Yes38c28.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.675724.6%14 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes65c24.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9430332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes51c23.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2654335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No44c22.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7494066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.665749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe35…57c3backed Yes74c16.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3510430.8%32 W · 72 L-16.9wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No71c14.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.32,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4784…2f0cbacked Yes74c13.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.061241.7%5 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick67cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.