Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x293fa40ca42884ccd2304ddddad9f0c8ab0554895039a4846bb0c1c0d5b220a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 1,982$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.28 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 416$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 60c | 370.04$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.77 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 365.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 62c | 301$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.73 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 274.48$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 270$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 43c | 160$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.61 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 153.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 62c | 148.69$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 64c | 142$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 139.96$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 136.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 33c | 134.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 124.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 121.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 18c | 108.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 28c | 107.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 105.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 21c | 105.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.11 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 102.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 34c | 94.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 35c | 93.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 45c | 76.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 67.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 63.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 60.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 56.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 25c | 56.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 55.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 38c | 53.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 44c | 53.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 26c | 51.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10d…8f16backed No | 56c | 49.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 35c | 48.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…fc2cbacked No | 74c | 48.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 46.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 44.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 36c | 39.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 31c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 42c | 31.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 51c | 29.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…cf25backed No | 64c | 27.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…dd23backed Yes | 40c | 26.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 72c | 23.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…d8e3backed No | 64c | 21.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 75c | 20.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…c599backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 70c | 18.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 16.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 80c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 14.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.