TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs AaB Esport (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Imperial Academyof Imperial Academy, AaB Esport
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,809
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,809 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2924…0f31backed AaB Esport47c3,853$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.7949646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked AaB Esport48c3,436$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.362,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fdd…e1fdbacked Imperial Academy38c2,602$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.574276.2%32 W · 10 L+6.6wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked AaB Esport53c2,329$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.211,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked AaB Esport1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151943.6%7 W · 187 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed AaB Esport58c1,432$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.841,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Imperial Academy38c1,402$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.13,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Imperial Academy27c1,154$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.0624939.8%99 W · 150 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed Imperial Academy38c1,110$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.4820554.1%111 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4aa0…e20fbacked AaB Esport13c1,040$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.524045%18 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Imperial Academy27c998.24$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.865,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed AaB Esport78c957.81$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.742,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Imperial Academy45c956.37$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.3252951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x660a…3d22backed Imperial Academy36c833.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.335251.9%27 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Imperial Academy68c779.96$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.192,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Imperial Academy36c752.52$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.936,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed AaB Esport72c680.82$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.61,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed AaB Esport68c638.3$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.024,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked AaB Esport62c603.95$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.456639.4%26 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f8c…1e4dbacked Imperial Academy7c593$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.49540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+224.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed AaB Esport76c526.53$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001163.6%7 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick73cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Imperial Academy52c514.83$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.062,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked AaB Esport36c499.99$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17837441.7%156 W · 218 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c8…a9ffbacked AaB Esport73c471.9$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.492835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Imperial Academy52c409.58$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5815441.6%64 W · 90 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Imperial Academy58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16878348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d30…11f1backed Imperial Academy35c393.75$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.1316350.3%82 W · 81 L+14.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+24.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Imperial Academy61c360.18$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.1841847.1%197 W · 221 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Imperial Academy53c357.75$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.777,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked AaB Esport38c326.61$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.255,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Imperial Academy21c300$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.3560838.2%232 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Imperial Academy37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18925944.8%116 W · 143 L+12.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+30%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Imperial Academy53c278.54$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.11,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3429…a098backed Imperial Academy10c277$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45da…72febacked Imperial Academy47c261.01$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.346845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Imperial Academy46c260.43$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6333448.2%161 W · 173 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd156…0541backed Imperial Academy8c244$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.48825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid+86.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Imperial Academy44c231.11$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4227549.5%136 W · 139 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Imperial Academy22c229.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.392,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…4e6fbacked Imperial Academy8c227$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid+64.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed Imperial Academy39c222.37$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.4772139.7%286 W · 435 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Imperial Academy47c219.84$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.64,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…f4a4backed Imperial Academy12c215$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2475%3 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.55per pick20cpaid+780.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc056…e188backed AaB Esport47c212.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008751.7%45 W · 42 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb39…326dbacked AaB Esport66c209.09$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Imperial Academy45c207.39$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.3923038.3%88 W · 142 L-15.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked AaB Esport62c206.26$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8811740.2%47 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Imperial Academy27c195.6$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.630951.5%159 W · 150 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef1a…2f3bbacked Imperial Academy9c191$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.81425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+177.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed AaB Esport30c186$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6657935.1%203 W · 376 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked AaB Esport58c172.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016344.8%73 W · 90 L-32.6wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-34.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed AaB Esport73c171.23$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fe…dd6dbacked Imperial Academy19c167.3$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+157%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Imperial Academy24c161.35$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6330031.7%95 W · 205 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df4…0540backed AaB Esport65c154.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007958.2%46 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed AaB Esport71c152.46$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10938848.5%188 W · 200 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc882…0662backed Imperial Academy31c147.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1113333.1%44 W · 89 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Imperial Academy38c137$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.9442149.6%209 W · 212 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed AaB Esport29c134.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6410725.2%27 W · 80 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f57…2282backed Imperial Academy15c130.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.955863.8%37 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed Imperial Academy24c130$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.81,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed AaB Esport80c127.22$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.262,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed AaB Esport33c125$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4245240.3%182 W · 270 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed AaB Esport31c125$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7521739.2%85 W · 132 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Imperial Academy40c121.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.461,67651.1%857 W · 819 L+21.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Imperial Academy45c110.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8779951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Imperial Academy34c108.04$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.394,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a7…374abacked Imperial Academy56c107.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6627848.6%135 W · 143 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x045a…b9a4backed Imperial Academy56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.143441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked AaB Esport59c106.58$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked Imperial Academy16c104$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3615646.8%73 W · 83 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked AaB Esport65c102$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.278963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Imperial Academy28c95.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.832,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed AaB Esport30c93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.336845.9%169 W · 199 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed AaB Esport33c93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8241436.7%152 W · 262 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a9a…a9c7backed Imperial Academy36c78.35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.249241.3%38 W · 54 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed AaB Esport79c73.77$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9755950.3%281 W · 278 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Imperial Academy38c72.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.391,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Imperial Academy43c66.13$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7496543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Imperial Academy34c65.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.371,00355.7%559 W · 444 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed AaB Esport41c64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2418545.4%84 W · 101 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed AaB Esport30c61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.587022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Imperial Academy24c60.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1227015.2%41 W · 229 L-41.9wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-54.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfff2…3f58backed Imperial Academy27c54.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.736918.8%13 W · 56 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8c7…a01ebacked Imperial Academy36c53.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.22771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick37cpaid+93.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x53b1…8e43backed AaB Esport79c53.22$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.961947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Imperial Academy42c52.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9873948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c38…fd63backed AaB Esport62c50.82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5117257.6%99 W · 73 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked Imperial Academy45c49.62$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4240652.2%212 W · 194 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Imperial Academy50c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2164439.8%256 W · 388 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Imperial Academy38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.930348.5%147 W · 156 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked AaB Esport65c38.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2523249.1%114 W · 118 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed AaB Esport42c35.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0510133.7%34 W · 67 L-14.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Imperial Academy31c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2471951%367 W · 352 L+28.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe727…8eb1backed AaB Esport61c32.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010051%51 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed AaB Esport41c32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1237339.7%148 W · 225 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c71…7ccbbacked AaB Esport61c30.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd00d…83debacked Imperial Academy34c29.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.791376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+34.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked AaB Esport72c27.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked Imperial Academy56c27.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.999061.1%55 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.