Ligue 1 · resolved market
Le Havre AC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c731d2e40fd7efb44004441b30a07eb2588ea72b39a02f66cec7b71f241104f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 3,035$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.35 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 68c | 2,940$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.85 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…4e55backed Over | 67c | 378.4$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 31c | 322.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 17c | 306.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 304.89$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 32c | 263.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Over | 62c | 255.44$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.07 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 30c | 238.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 31c | 138.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 113.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 30c | 81.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 67c | 74.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0578…08dabacked Under | 32c | 56.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 33c | 55.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 65c | 38.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe038…7e6abacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd95b…188ebacked Over | 69c | 27.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…06e8backed Over | 69c | 27.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed Over | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…4260backed Over | 69c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…7012backed Over | 69c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…8352backed Over | 69c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Le Havre AC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Le Havre AC vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Le Havre AC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Le Havre AC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Le Havre AC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.