TailMyPicks
Market

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
UCAM Esports Clubof Misa Esports, UCAM Esports Club
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,953
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$101,376

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,953 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6918…782bbacked UCAM Esports Club19c10,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,100.11,52254.7%832 W · 690 L+37.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Misa Esports53c7,342$3,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,892.1967760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed UCAM Esports Club64c6,860$4,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,451.751,49248.4%722 W · 770 L+47.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bf0…72cebacked UCAM Esports Club47c5,146$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.053237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked UCAM Esports Club21c5,001$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,957.161,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Misa Esports33c3,380$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.782,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Misa Esports51c3,098$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585.3258457.7%337 W · 247 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Misa Esports1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed UCAM Esports Club21c2,850$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,251.471,47429%427 W · 1,047 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed UCAM Esports Club46c2,602$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.111,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked Misa Esports79c2,532$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00024554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed UCAM Esports Club43c2,525$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.061,00454.5%547 W · 457 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed UCAM Esports Club64c2,500$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.736743.6%160 W · 207 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked UCAM Esports Club51c2,080$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.961,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked UCAM Esports Club60c1,871$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.811,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed UCAM Esports Club53c1,516$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.8678043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed UCAM Esports Club40c1,386$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.861,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Misa Esports54c1,263$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.0582954.5%452 W · 377 L+3.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ee…45cebacked Misa Esports50c1,250$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6258840.9%36 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Misa Esports79c1,190$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.5720557.1%117 W · 88 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed UCAM Esports Club15c1,038$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.051,05650.4%532 W · 524 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Misa Esports80c1,010$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80447453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…cbbebacked Misa Esports80c1,005$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.991947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5409…79dbbacked Misa Esports79c1,000$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79030360.7%184 W · 119 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb0d…1d6dbacked UCAM Esports Club22c1,000$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7804311.6%5 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…0bffbacked UCAM Esports Club22c999.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.9922532.4%73 W · 152 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c5…8a63backed Misa Esports61c962.56$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.8430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed UCAM Esports Club45c850$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.532542.2%137 W · 188 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88db…54a4backed Misa Esports79c824.05$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65110247.1%48 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Misa Esports59c803.66$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.881,93942.2%819 W · 1,120 L-46.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked UCAM Esports Club42c799.8$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.966845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Misa Esports52c765.51$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40028835.4%102 W · 186 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed UCAM Esports Club57c754.23$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.652,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed UCAM Esports Club31c737.93$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.1252543.8%230 W · 295 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed UCAM Esports Club33c733.76$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.8520450.5%103 W · 101 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed UCAM Esports Club21c699.97$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.981,80251.2%923 W · 879 L+53.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Misa Esports6c679.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.392,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked UCAM Esports Club36c637.7$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.251,26737.7%478 W · 789 L+35.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked UCAM Esports Club48c593.07$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.478549.9%392 W · 393 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed UCAM Esports Club49c584.6$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.1429856.4%168 W · 130 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bf6…2d98backed Misa Esports57c571$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.243033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Misa Esports56c568$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.133,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a4…8427backed Misa Esports79c560.76$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44318547%87 W · 98 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Misa Esports47c545.5$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.411,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked UCAM Esports Club51c478.49$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.818046.1%83 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed UCAM Esports Club38c474.97$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.61,24439.7%494 W · 750 L-69.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed UCAM Esports Club51c456.65$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.31,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked UCAM Esports Club22c454.54$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.34314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed UCAM Esports Club20c450$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36064753.9%349 W · 298 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Misa Esports78c418.9$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.7437647.9%180 W · 196 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Misa Esports73c405.62$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.296746.3%31 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Misa Esports52c403.85$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21082260.9%501 W · 321 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Misa Esports41c400$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16223943.1%103 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf1a…d74ebacked Misa Esports80c376.51$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300450%2 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd02a…4771backed Misa Esports79c360.76$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28519232.8%63 W · 129 L-17.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Misa Esports80c356.87$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.524434.4%84 W · 160 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae8…e1b3backed Misa Esports54c350.74$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1897349.3%36 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed UCAM Esports Club33c341$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.0557349.4%283 W · 290 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked UCAM Esports Club44c339.38$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.291,91237.1%709 W · 1,203 L-115.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Misa Esports52c301.52$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.791,61643.8%708 W · 908 L-74.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Misa Esports35c300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10472637.7%274 W · 452 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c09…f399backed Misa Esports78c300$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23469941.9%293 W · 406 L-22.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Misa Esports79c299.99$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.8460943.2%263 W · 346 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d10…5990backed Misa Esports34c289$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.911931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed UCAM Esports Club41c278.3$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.011,06723.5%251 W · 816 L-76.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4711…ce32backed UCAM Esports Club49c260$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.65825.9%15 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e2…3ad5backed UCAM Esports Club13c255$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.854114.6%6 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x191f…f09ebacked UCAM Esports Club46c253.9$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.942540.7%173 W · 252 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Misa Esports40c251.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.741,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed UCAM Esports Club80c251.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.751,18166%780 W · 401 L+70.1wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa388…d4adbacked UCAM Esports Club49c251$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Misa Esports35c241.22$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.421530.7%66 W · 149 L-15.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2de9…5289backed Misa Esports45c237.67$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Misa Esports61c233.71$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.512,98444.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L-94.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked UCAM Esports Club44c227.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2432650.3%164 W · 162 L-0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked UCAM Esports Club48c226.59$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.7450041.6%208 W · 292 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed Misa Esports54c220.25$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1567957.9%393 W · 286 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Misa Esports51c217.35$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.52,02030.5%617 W · 1,403 L-172.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Misa Esports28c206$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.847739%30 W · 47 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed UCAM Esports Club45c206$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.2248747%229 W · 258 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Misa Esports48c200.24$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.851,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a19…86c8backed Misa Esports34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed UCAM Esports Club21c200$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15879745.8%365 W · 432 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked Misa Esports34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687733.8%26 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Misa Esports11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2259740.7%243 W · 354 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed Misa Esports28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5735048%168 W · 182 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked Misa Esports34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6829942.8%128 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed UCAM Esports Club66c200$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.361464.3%9 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked UCAM Esports Club42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1161,34847.3%637 W · 711 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Misa Esports34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6812040%48 W · 72 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Misa Esports79c200$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15822748.9%111 W · 116 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16f1…e1d1backed Misa Esports78c200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15639851.3%204 W · 194 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Misa Esports36c188.12$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.12,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e71…e570backed Misa Esports78c179.78$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.234560%27 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed UCAM Esports Club59c178.21$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.621,57748.4%764 W · 813 L+17.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa672…6b31backed Misa Esports57c174.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006566.2%43 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked UCAM Esports Club22c153.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.892450.9%470 W · 454 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048b…f503backed Misa Esports79c152.65$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.591442.9%6 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick68cpaid-38.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6aa7…db93backed Misa Esports79c152.06$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1323674.6%176 W · 60 L+17.9wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Misa Esports79c148.71$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.481,21343.4%527 W · 686 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.