TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
UCAM Esports Clubof Misa Esports, UCAM Esports Club
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,863 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe361…ae44backed UCAM Esports Club68c12,993$8,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,168.8389347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked UCAM Esports Club31c5,952$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,132.471,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked UCAM Esports Club29c3,436$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.711,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Misa Esports1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Misa Esports70c2,917$2,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,042.131,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Misa Esports72c1,870$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.467760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed Misa Esports1c1,800$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+89.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed UCAM Esports Club33c1,682$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.091,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed Misa Esports69c1,600$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10416645.8%76 W · 90 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Misa Esports1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed UCAM Esports Club32c1,472$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.722,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed UCAM Esports Club66c1,407$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.8436643.7%160 W · 206 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed UCAM Esports Club30c1,200$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8351,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked UCAM Esports Club47c1,122$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.41,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked UCAM Esports Club28c1,120$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.414327.3%39 W · 104 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Misa Esports69c1,075$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.782,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked UCAM Esports Club5c1,055$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.9814840.5%60 W · 88 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Misa Esports65c1,001$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.632,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd487…053ebacked UCAM Esports Club36c1,000$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.023655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Misa Esports68c1,000$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.8448847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed UCAM Esports Club34c906.93$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.3986943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc48…24c3backed Misa Esports67c833$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.841266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e71…e570backed Misa Esports69c797.98$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.614560%27 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Misa Esports72c749.99$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.991,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb0d…1d6dbacked UCAM Esports Club33c700$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4694311.6%5 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf6…2d98backed UCAM Esports Club28c640.68$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.333033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed Misa Esports69c621.74$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42921440.2%86 W · 128 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Misa Esports68c581.67$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.571,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Misa Esports70c571.04$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.651,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked UCAM Esports Club29c569.34$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.231,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Misa Esports72c566.89$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40890537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f6c…620bbacked UCAM Esports Club76c560.65$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.8832566.5%216 W · 109 L+26.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x88db…54a4backed Misa Esports69c555.07$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38310046%46 W · 54 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Misa Esports70c524.11$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.8843839.7%174 W · 264 L-24.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed UCAM Esports Club46c511.82$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.3858559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bb6…50fcbacked Misa Esports70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3505356.6%30 W · 23 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ec…267dbacked Misa Esports66c500$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.52839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Misa Esports69c500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34510539%41 W · 64 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Misa Esports67c500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.341,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked Misa Esports70c500$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35028341%116 W · 167 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Misa Esports61c500$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.542852.3%224 W · 204 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Misa Esports66c487.02$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.4324643.1%106 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f5…c45dbacked Misa Esports59c479.99$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.117438.5%67 W · 107 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked UCAM Esports Club29c467.51$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.931520%3 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed Misa Esports70c450$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31686758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3737…bfd1backed Misa Esports75c422.45$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.737957.5%218 W · 161 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Misa Esports37c410.7$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.661,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked UCAM Esports Club21c396.93$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.151,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked Misa Esports72c390.83$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28027142.4%115 W · 156 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed Misa Esports60c350$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21027465.7%180 W · 94 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed UCAM Esports Club29c349.94$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.461,39943.7%612 W · 787 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked UCAM Esports Club30c335.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.1499747.1%470 W · 527 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Misa Esports72c299.99$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9560243.4%261 W · 341 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed UCAM Esports Club21c249.35$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.181,53943.7%673 W · 866 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed UCAM Esports Club60c236.73$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4460354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8557…6f88backed UCAM Esports Club22c232.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.0842348.2%204 W · 219 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Misa Esports58c228.23$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.211,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Misa Esports73c221.32$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.5619948.2%96 W · 103 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked UCAM Esports Club46c220.23$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.511,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Misa Esports71c209.93$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15023880.3%191 W · 47 L+16.2wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked UCAM Esports Club9c200.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.661,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Misa Esports41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8223943.1%103 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Misa Esports48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9652438.9%204 W · 320 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked UCAM Esports Club56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8895048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92a9…0e78backed Misa Esports53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10638342.8%164 W · 219 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb68…9aa2backed Misa Esports68c198.38$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.91872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c6c…5e36backed UCAM Esports Club43c195.65$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.525044%22 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x109b…935fbacked UCAM Esports Club40c187.5$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.528261%172 W · 110 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Misa Esports29c187$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0760738.7%235 W · 372 L+2.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Misa Esports29c187$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0759740.7%243 W · 354 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Misa Esports29c187$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0749739.4%196 W · 301 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7055…49bbbacked Misa Esports54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003026.7%8 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd89c…2d1fbacked Misa Esports54c185$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.518159.1%107 W · 74 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Misa Esports36c180.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.272,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Misa Esports37c164.77$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4721231.1%66 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…b387backed Misa Esports72c161.52$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3464749.5%320 W · 327 L+3.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3027…3594backed UCAM Esports Club19c160$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.215048.7%73 W · 77 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6625…fef4backed Misa Esports61c158.66$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.723043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Misa Esports54c153.5$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.891,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d51…d971backed UCAM Esports Club8c150$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13867057.5%385 W · 285 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40fc…498dbacked Misa Esports69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019735%69 W · 128 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee7e…f7d7backed UCAM Esports Club13c143.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.036011.7%7 W · 53 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Misa Esports71c136.33$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1352543.8%230 W · 295 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed UCAM Esports Club46c136.13$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.81,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked UCAM Esports Club16c130.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.2818046.1%83 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x547e…753cbacked UCAM Esports Club17c129.26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.77922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Misa Esports64c121.07$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.981,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked UCAM Esports Club39c119.19$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.172,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9311…e731backed UCAM Esports Club34c110$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1123258.6%136 W · 96 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Misa Esports30c105.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.381,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Misa Esports70c105$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.582554.8%452 W · 373 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed UCAM Esports Club25c103.44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9131244.6%139 W · 173 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Misa Esports73c103.21$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.381,37248.6%667 W · 705 L+57.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked UCAM Esports Club30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7061746.5%287 W · 330 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…e613backed UCAM Esports Club50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Misa Esports49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked UCAM Esports Club26c97.49$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.741,05539.6%418 W · 637 L-74.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed UCAM Esports Club30c97.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed UCAM Esports Club23c96.85$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4448747%229 W · 258 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe896…a4c7backed UCAM Esports Club60c92.17$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1727962.4%174 W · 105 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.