TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Guardians vs. Royals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Royalsof Guardians, Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$161,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$165,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,026 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Royals52c23,965$12,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,523.651,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Guardians48c19,353$9,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,287.356451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc4…f94fbacked Guardians47c14,064$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,600.183450%17 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Guardians49c11,316$5,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,535.8250852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfab1…aa13backed Guardians1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Royals47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.3233554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Royals52c4,091$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.5538249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85e…2aebbacked Guardians51c3,851$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.826749.3%33 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Guardians45c3,113$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.1754048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Guardians49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4709749.5%48 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Guardians50c2,473$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.2732852.4%172 W · 156 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Royals53c2,334$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.0736047.5%171 W · 189 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda7…e11fbacked Guardians73c2,240$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee1…dae8backed Guardians47c2,211$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.316456.3%36 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7320…79e6backed Guardians3c2,099$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703354.5%18 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Royals52c2,077$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.091,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Guardians41c1,839$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.6831248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Royals52c1,698$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.8220850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Guardians44c1,641$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.819239.1%75 W · 117 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians48c1,536$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.979,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7836…6bc4backed Guardians40c1,410$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56211331.9%36 W · 77 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Royals51c1,284$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.051,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Guardians48c1,254$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.8532042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Royals55c907.27$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.271,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Royals51c871.2$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.8924551.8%127 W · 118 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Guardians48c870$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.65,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Guardians49c816.02$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40061346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Guardians54c724.28$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.1125551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Guardians42c714.29$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30028447.5%135 W · 149 L-20.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0447…60abbacked Guardians79c704.94$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.9580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef69…a854backed Royals52c684.07$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.354461.4%27 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians32c672.57$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.112,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Guardians67c662$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.161,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcd…6bddbacked Guardians77c522.3$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017558.9%103 W · 72 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Guardians48c499.98$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.9913247.7%63 W · 69 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Royals73c462.86$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.865950.8%30 W · 29 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x40ab…fbb5backed Royals52c426.92$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.9216654.8%91 W · 75 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff24…76c1backed Guardians49c420.41$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2069332.3%30 W · 63 L-16.8wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Guardians48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021853.2%116 W · 102 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2256…b932backed Guardians41c405.45$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.89944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Guardians50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016934.9%59 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Guardians48c400$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Royals52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.621,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…0f19backed Guardians50c378.57$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1912548%12 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Guardians47c370.01$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.1197950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Royals52c335.99$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.281,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x532f…83ccbacked Guardians48c333$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.847548%36 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Royals52c320.83$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15495850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x255e…4979backed Guardians49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503650%18 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Guardians57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17151953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Royals51c299.98$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.992,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e9…c21ebacked Royals51c290$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.1683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+46.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0f8…a8cfbacked Guardians76c288.04$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ccf…c116backed Guardians47c286.79$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.699645.8%44 W · 52 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Guardians48c280$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+59.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Guardians37c272.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012640.5%51 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa21d…a769backed Royals67c250.48$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.662944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b2c…284cbacked Royals52c239.98$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9928453.9%153 W · 131 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Guardians64c236.1$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504447.7%21 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c95…0a3abacked Guardians48c222$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5611555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Guardians49c212.24$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10499951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Royals54c209.68$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.6570841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Guardians49c204.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9911748.7%57 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…005fbacked Guardians76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1522176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Royals53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.681,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Guardians48c184.95$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7831347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc12…1e02backed Guardians70c176$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.52742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…9d12backed Guardians50c170$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858253.7%44 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Royals67c168.46$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5911446.5%53 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c1…d67bbacked Guardians53c156.79$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.361625%4 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians47c154.68$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.72,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Guardians53c150$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.222,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Guardians37c150$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.527733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5fd…7be7backed Guardians48c145.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Guardians78c145.02$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8138741.1%159 W · 228 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf521…fca3backed Guardians48c143.75$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0d…786fbacked Royals66c140$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4667…ba10backed Guardians42c135.88$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.57345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed Guardians74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009354.8%51 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Guardians48c133.33$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6414945%67 W · 82 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Guardians39c126.19$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…2018backed Guardians48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Royals52c122$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5640629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x74c4…4493backed Royals54c110$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.617850%89 W · 89 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bed…4eb5backed Royals65c108.63$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed Guardians78c107.69$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842343.5%10 W · 13 L-5.0wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-34.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9523…7174backed Guardians48c106.26$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3d…d8d1backed Guardians24c100.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Guardians47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4766751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5930…f3fdbacked Guardians48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488552.9%45 W · 40 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x58ed…566abacked Guardians49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…1fd4backed Guardians50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb861…4c35backed Guardians49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c4…25e7backed Guardians48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8173…ae04backed Guardians50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Guardians48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4831244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9a…d9d7backed Guardians49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496553.8%35 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…1ccfbacked Royals52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.