TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Jiujiang: Yidi Yang vs Carol Zhao

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Carol Zhaoof Yidi Yang, Carol Zhao
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,038
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,038 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Yidi Yang40c6,321$2,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,508.177,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Carol Zhao52c3,195$1,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.34,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Carol Zhao55c3,140$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40011,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Yidi Yang48c3,049$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.4654345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Carol Zhao60c2,390$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.84,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Carol Zhao53c2,339$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.316,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Yidi Yang33c2,249$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7412,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yidi Yang14c2,118$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.338,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yidi Yang48c2,062$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.041,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Carol Zhao61c1,987$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.428,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b06…a18bbacked Carol Zhao66c1,666$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.031560%9 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4340…363dbacked Yidi Yang14c1,398$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.318445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yidi Yang11c1,127$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.354,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Carol Zhao61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39031736.9%117 W · 200 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Yidi Yang46c832.48$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.2780341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Carol Zhao67c786.61$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.569,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Carol Zhao62c698.48$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.125,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yidi Yang46c693.71$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.9226535.5%94 W · 171 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Yidi Yang46c652.15$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.991,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yidi Yang46c610.38$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.661,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Carol Zhao62c600$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22815442.2%65 W · 89 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Yidi Yang52c599.98$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.991,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked Yidi Yang42c599.97$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-63.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Carol Zhao52c593.18$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.313,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Yidi Yang17c589$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042332.4%137 W · 286 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Yidi Yang54c554.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Carol Zhao71c500$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.1730857.1%176 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…a1a6backed Yidi Yang53c496.07$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.9227148%130 W · 141 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Yidi Yang47c404.87$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.961,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Yidi Yang50c403.11$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.653764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Yidi Yang52c366.1$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.3216743.7%73 W · 94 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Yidi Yang50c337.61$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.024,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Yidi Yang54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15094549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8058…4cc3backed Yidi Yang23c243.74$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Carol Zhao51c209.45$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5316258.6%95 W · 67 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Yidi Yang47c205.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.851,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc314…6a46backed Yidi Yang10c198$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.818410.9%20 W · 164 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Carol Zhao48c195$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.413946.8%65 W · 74 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Carol Zhao53c189.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.859556.8%54 W · 41 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac87…43acbacked Carol Zhao51c187.38$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.03616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-67.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Carol Zhao65c182.33$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.824,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Carol Zhao70c173$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.312,08252.3%1,088 W · 994 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Carol Zhao62c169.62$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.646,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Carol Zhao49c168.47$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9257447.7%274 W · 300 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yidi Yang46c152$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.927,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Yidi Yang14c150.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0784640%338 W · 508 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe658…2c42backed Carol Zhao54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6939842.2%168 W · 230 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yidi Yang49c146.4$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.741,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c13…ef2ebacked Carol Zhao51c137.25$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.252740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c8…3c52backed Carol Zhao45c130.17$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5920234.2%69 W · 133 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Carol Zhao45c124$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.27,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe479…70dfbacked Yidi Yang49c122.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.315337.9%58 W · 95 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e1…f17fbacked Yidi Yang57c119.3$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6824463.5%155 W · 89 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Yidi Yang49c108.28$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0628348.4%137 W · 146 L+1.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yidi Yang34c106.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.733,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9851…1320backed Carol Zhao64c105.89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.825549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Yidi Yang47c105.59$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.371,06231.8%338 W · 724 L-27.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yidi Yang52c103$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5634242.4%145 W · 197 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe00d…4251backed Carol Zhao79c102.53$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5319761.4%121 W · 76 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Yidi Yang51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c5…8181backed Carol Zhao55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9181256.2%456 W · 356 L-3.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Carol Zhao69c90.74$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.811,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yidi Yang17c88.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.831,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d7…d801backed Yidi Yang43c80.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3533655.1%185 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83de…1786backed Carol Zhao58c76.55$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.029041.1%37 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Carol Zhao53c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.251,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Yidi Yang48c74.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3696755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Yidi Yang28c73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6790340.2%363 W · 540 L+4.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yidi Yang35c66.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1517436.8%64 W · 110 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Carol Zhao48c63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.761,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a34…51fabacked Yidi Yang24c62.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9222020%44 W · 176 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Carol Zhao54c61.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.142,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47d5…138ebacked Carol Zhao65c61.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.548758.6%51 W · 36 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Carol Zhao49c61.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.217,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Yidi Yang37c61.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7674346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Carol Zhao55c60.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4932853%174 W · 154 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Carol Zhao53c55.19$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.942,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked Carol Zhao55c54.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5443951.9%228 W · 211 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x680d…05eabacked Carol Zhao74c47.33$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3118659.7%111 W · 75 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked Carol Zhao48c47.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5225763.4%163 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Yidi Yang48c46.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.581047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Carol Zhao52c44.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.321,22652%637 W · 589 L+44.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Carol Zhao50c43.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1563052.4%330 W · 300 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f7…a181backed Carol Zhao52c42.96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6251347%241 W · 272 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Yidi Yang26c42.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,14247.3%540 W · 602 L+65.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Carol Zhao51c41.26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2260355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Carol Zhao52c40.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.391,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Yidi Yang26c38.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.091,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6553…aa3cbacked Carol Zhao53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.746459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Yidi Yang42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1566452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Carol Zhao47c33.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6336244.8%162 W · 200 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ad…71acbacked Carol Zhao53c32.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4212959.7%77 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Carol Zhao56c31.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9183047%390 W · 440 L-16.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed Carol Zhao66c30.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2817554.9%96 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Carol Zhao70c28.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.641,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Yidi Yang42c28.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221845.9%100 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a28…1813backed Carol Zhao53c28.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.234537.8%17 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa31e…3d8fbacked Carol Zhao79c27.85$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.851968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a7…acd1backed Carol Zhao78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed Carol Zhao79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3216856%94 W · 74 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.