Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d04a8ef04b6627f1fa370b58fb01224d13300c1c4369ecdf389de8d915b9eed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 58c | 521.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.17 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 68c | 443.07$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 58c | 422.72$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.18 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 42c | 349.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 39c | 269.77$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 38c | 255.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.07 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 42c | 232.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 191.15$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 64c | 188.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 177.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 61c | 171.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 153.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 73c | 151.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 34c | 148.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 42c | 132$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 33c | 129.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 42c | 120$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 100.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 98.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 41c | 98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 70.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 62.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 58c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 39c | 57.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 57.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 73c | 52.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 52.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 42c | 51.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 60c | 44.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 70c | 42.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 34c | 41.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 66c | 40.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 30c | 39.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 58c | 37.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 59c | 33.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 38c | 29.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 42c | 26.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 66c | 23.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 67c | 22.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 71c | 21.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 63c | 18.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.