NFL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Broncos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0c7be442d4ea86711485eccf392ae9bd1cc7597dc01e5b25360f2eef437149
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Panthers, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Panthers | 20c | 22,575$4,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,439.64 | 144 | 57.6%83 W · 61 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…a48bbacked Panthers | 11c | 20,083$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,209.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Panthers | 14c | 15,031$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058.6 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Panthers | 16c | 15,000$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.98 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Panthers | 20c | 11,252$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.98 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Panthers | 15c | 9,721$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.16 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Panthers | 24c | 8,267$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Panthers | 6c | 3,574$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b94…ce9dbacked Panthers | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Panthers | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Panthers | 33c | 2,500$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe799…3d4dbacked Panthers | 25c | 1,525$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…36b3backed Panthers | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Panthers | 8c | 1,121$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…8c07backed Panthers | 22c | 1,008$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.74 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Panthers | 7c | 888$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Panthers | 17c | 794.12$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Panthers | 10c | 761.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…e7a3backed Panthers | 17c | 750$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…7affbacked Panthers | 17c | 599.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Broncos | 79c | 511.96$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Panthers | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Panthers | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…2747backed Panthers | 11c | 472.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Panthers | 23c | 449.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Panthers | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Panthers | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Panthers | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Panthers | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…cb78backed Panthers | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…b055backed Panthers | 37c | 350$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Panthers | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…e88abacked Panthers | 18c | 276.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…d02cbacked Panthers | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Panthers | 20c | 222$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Panthers | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Panthers | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…275ebacked Panthers | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Panthers | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed Broncos | 70c | 161.93$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa786…0d36backed Panthers | 18c | 119.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85f…e795backed Panthers | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.32per pick | 38cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…611dbacked Panthers | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…8ae3backed Panthers | 20c | 116.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c4…490ebacked Broncos | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 116 | 73.3%85 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Panthers | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…c1f3backed Broncos | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…16fbbacked Panthers | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Panthers | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Panthers | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Panthers | 16c | 99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Panthers | 20c | 98.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 29.9%29 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4d…2ae9backed Broncos | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2d…47e4backed Panthers | 22c | 88.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Broncos | 77c | 88.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Panthers | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…be81backed Panthers | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…ec9bbacked Panthers | 17c | 70.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2010…4b92backed Panthers | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…2b90backed Panthers | 17c | 69.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c32…09dfbacked Broncos | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dc…0b20backed Panthers | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaf…e2e0backed Panthers | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…3e14backed Panthers | 23c | 53.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…c3dcbacked Panthers | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…c67cbacked Broncos | 68c | 44.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Panthers | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133c…c399backed Broncos | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d95…93ddbacked Broncos | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…70e6backed Broncos | 77c | 27.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd300…54bfbacked Broncos | 78c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…382bbacked Broncos | 70c | 25.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Broncos | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f62…cf1bbacked Broncos | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d7…5574backed Broncos | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.30per pick | 65cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Broncos | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.