TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Asian League · resolved market

Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Qingdao Hainiu FCof Shandong Taishan FC, Qingdao Hainiu FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,612 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Asian League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Qingdao Hainiu FC69c6,000$4,140 inWon+$1,859.971,72550.6%873 W · 852 L+28.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Shandong Taishan FC31c4,015$1,256 inLost-$1,255.585,94646.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Shandong Taishan FC29c2,916$847 inLost-$846.681,64736.2%596 W · 1,051 L-34.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Shandong Taishan FC33c381.27$127 inLost-$126.992,42438%920 W · 1,504 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Qingdao Hainiu FC71c299.99$214 inWon+$86.135751%182 W · 175 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee7…f36ebacked Qingdao Hainiu FC67c298.51$200 inWon+$98.514961.2%30 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Qingdao Hainiu FC70c267$187 inWon+$80.11,11746.2%516 W · 601 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Qingdao Hainiu FC70c267$187 inWon+$80.11,65150.9%840 W · 811 L+5.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Qingdao Hainiu FC71c184$130 inWon+$54.2870842.5%301 W · 407 L-26.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadc6…d5e0backed Shandong Taishan FC24c126.57$31 inLost-$30.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Qingdao Hainiu FC68c110$75 inWon+$35.253946.9%253 W · 286 L-14.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked Shandong Taishan FC35c103.35$36 inLost-$36.171741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Qingdao Hainiu FC65c100$65 inWon+$3542351.3%217 W · 206 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Shandong Taishan FC40c99.98$40 inLost-$39.9911030.9%34 W · 76 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x434a…91cbbacked Shandong Taishan FC29c78.93$23 inLost-$23.121625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda6f…1e46backed Qingdao Hainiu FC62c64.52$40 inWon+$24.527349.3%36 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC68c62.99$43 inWon+$20.091,35645.5%617 W · 739 L+15.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c9…ed71backed Shandong Taishan FC35c61.34$21 inLost-$21.471643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC74c61$45 inWon+$16.123347.6%111 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Shandong Taishan FC31c48.95$15 inLost-$15.174748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Qingdao Hainiu FC76c48.06$37 inWon+$11.5436352.9%192 W · 171 L-1.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90f…a908backed Qingdao Hainiu FC66c41.62$27 inWon+$14.154961.2%30 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Qingdao Hainiu FC65c41.34$27 inWon+$14.479747.4%46 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Qingdao Hainiu FC71c38.06$27 inWon+$11.0512956.6%73 W · 56 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Shandong Taishan FC29c35.36$10 inLost-$10.243855.3%21 W · 17 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0eba…cb3dbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC68c35$24 inWon+$11.21942.1%8 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-32.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc965…f9edbacked Qingdao Hainiu FC72c34.72$25 inWon+$9.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Shandong Taishan FC34c31.14$11 inLost-$10.5919556.9%111 W · 84 L+15.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Qingdao Hainiu FC69c23.19$16 inWon+$7.1915352.9%81 W · 72 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Qingdao Hainiu FC69c21.7$15 inWon+$6.7317058.2%99 W · 71 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Qingdao Hainiu FC70c21.47$15 inWon+$6.474346.5%20 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2fb9…c170backed Qingdao Hainiu FC80c18.77$15 inWon+$3.753278.1%25 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick78cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf18…59b6backed Qingdao Hainiu FC79c18.61$15 inWon+$3.91475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Qingdao Hainiu FC76c18$14 inWon+$4.321,97054.4%1,071 W · 899 L+32.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Qingdao Hainiu FC77c15.49$12 inWon+$3.6332654%176 W · 150 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.