Asian League · resolved market

Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc48224944e6ead0ff6921249baf75af9e6c4a8683c4125031612051f7a77330

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,269 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Asian League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	49c	4,206$2,070 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,136	5,963	46%2,744 W · 3,219 L	+46.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Under	43c	2,902$1,234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,667.84	193	40.9%79 W · 114 L	+8.4wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8407…c4b9backed Over	78c	2,717$2,130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,130.21	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+53.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	50c	2,223$1,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,119.71	2,528	42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L	+53.0wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	38c	1,913$728 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$728.28	229	49.8%114 W · 115 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Over	80c	1,381$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	56c	1,368$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.57	2,520	39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Under	17c	1,237$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,026.47	67	43.3%29 W · 38 L	+9.9wins	+0.15per pick	29cpaid	+82%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf061…a9aabacked Under	44c	1,091$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610.68	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	60c	1,062$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.67	1,235	49.9%616 W · 619 L	+9.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x882c…5d07backed Under	63c	756.41$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.18	208	38.9%81 W · 127 L	-14.1wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-24%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2794…5835backed Over	31c	724.98$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	46c	594.12$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.91	905	44.9%406 W · 499 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Over	39c	591.98$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.83	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x882c…8148backed Over	33c	560$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.6	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f8a…01cdbacked Over	62c	526.32$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.32	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	65c	470.76$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.13	723	42%304 W · 419 L	-29.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b0…551abacked Under	74c	387.19$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.19	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed Over	62c	362$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.63	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under	18c	360$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.2	93	39.8%37 W · 56 L	+9.0wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+50.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	67c	343.15$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.17	1,749	50.7%887 W · 862 L	+30.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	45c	325.49$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.07	226	53.5%121 W · 105 L	+10.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed Under	47c	294$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.49	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+176.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…8fc6backed Under	46c	255$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.7	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+4.1wins	+0.21per pick	42cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over	54c	213.52$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.81	729	44.2%322 W · 407 L	-29.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb026…9c7bbacked Under	47c	200$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+3.3wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	28c	194$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.7	1,651	50.9%840 W · 811 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7702…fcefbacked Under	72c	182.63$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.63	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-72.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Under	52c	164.17$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.16	95	45.3%43 W · 52 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	48c	150$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	132	40.9%54 W · 78 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	52c	142.19$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.94	2,456	37.9%931 W · 1,525 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd170…a9d9backed Over	64c	125.04$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.03	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb904…3ef8backed Under	25c	116$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87	42	61.9%26 W · 16 L	+5.4wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfc5f…1f5cbacked Under	39c	115.38$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.38	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under	49c	115.18$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.11	251	55.8%140 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under	49c	113.8$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.5	371	53.9%200 W · 171 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	36c	111.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.49	935	35.2%329 W · 606 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over	27c	105.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.43	1,126	46.3%521 W · 605 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over	48c	104.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	335	52.8%177 W · 158 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6861…cf22backed Under	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+96.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Under	51c	98$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.99	182	61.5%112 W · 70 L	+9.0wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	79c	97.31$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.61	1,662	36.2%602 W · 1,060 L	-34.7wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1737…2b2fbacked Over	52c	96.09$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	142	45.1%64 W · 78 L	-10.1wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf5d…df19backed Over	49c	91.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.17per pick	48cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Under	53c	90.47$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.57	44	68.2%30 W · 14 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+16%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Under	44c	89.57$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.16	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	+14.3wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	19c	79.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	427	25.8%110 W · 317 L	-34.1wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	28c	77$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.44	593	42.5%252 W · 341 L	-28.9wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf98…0924backed Under	52c	76.75$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.75	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+3.4wins	+0.16per pick	48cpaid	+40%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked Under	70c	71.43$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.43	65	83.1%54 W · 11 L	+6.5wins	+0.10per pick	73cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Under	68c	67.2$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over	26c	65$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	934	46.1%431 W · 503 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac9…e1cfbacked Under	17c	63$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	24cpaid	+194.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x811c…fd36backed Under	71c	56.34$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.34	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	64cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Over	64c	54.44$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.84	88	59.1%52 W · 36 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under	34c	54.41$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.91	263	48.7%128 W · 135 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Over	28c	52.81$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	247	47%116 W · 131 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Under	44c	52.27$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.27	257	42%108 W · 149 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x156e…cf6fbacked Over	73c	52$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf676…b039backed Over	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Over	61c	50$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	83	42.2%35 W · 48 L	-9.3wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-26%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under	33c	46.85$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.27	219	53.9%118 W · 101 L	+8.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	44c	41.4$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.11	1,357	45.5%617 W · 740 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b0…799fbacked Under	66c	40.86$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.86	64	54.7%35 W · 29 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccad…46ecbacked Under	71c	33.78$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e4b…83e2backed Under	70c	28.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.57	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over	54c	28.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.39	565	45.5%257 W · 308 L	-24.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	68c	26$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.32	1,991	54.1%1,078 W · 913 L	+29.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd892…f028backed Over	46c	24.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	60cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	51c	24.79$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	320	60%192 W · 128 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x85bc…1909backed Over	52c	24.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe392…d868backed Under	50c	23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.51	64	60.9%39 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Under	58c	22.41$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	106	40.6%43 W · 63 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5160…e5abbacked Over	50c	21.94$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ceb…4716backed Under	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	74cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x00fc…9e1fbacked Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9891…8949backed Under	51c	19.56$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.5	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-3.4wins	-0.21per pick	59cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Under	69c	14.49$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.45	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-4.5wins	-0.10per pick	58cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5this page
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Shandong Taishan FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Shandong Taishan FC O/U 1.5Over won
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Shandong Taishan FC O/U 2.5Over won
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Shandong Taishan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event