Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d9a901e4ae9e44606b81299875d16b3248c8cbea968930a2d7e1ce3076d105f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 11c | 468.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 19c | 408.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 292.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked Yes | 15c | 251.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 231.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 205.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 22c | 178.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 161.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 150.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 144.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 126.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 121.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 102.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 98.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 13c | 93.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 25c | 93.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 77.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 79c | 70.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 66.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 22c | 65.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 65.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 17c | 65.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 27c | 53.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 24c | 50.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 78c | 49.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 25c | 45.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 41.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 76c | 39.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 30.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 77c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 21.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…6372backed No | 79c | 18.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 75c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed No | 76c | 15.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 79c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 13.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.