Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e273581ab7c633f27a871e99c98cfb0f0be118e1ddbd22de53a5dfc404e6404
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 28c | 370.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 23c | 233.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 216.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 172.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 154.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 65c | 153.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 33c | 152.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 148.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 145$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 54c | 134.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 45c | 124.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 115.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 33c | 111.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 108.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 98.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 89.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 58c | 86.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 13c | 86.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 72c | 81.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 49c | 76.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 46c | 70.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 70.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 36c | 69.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 55c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 70c | 64.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 51c | 56.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 29c | 56.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 57c | 50.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 69c | 50.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…4004backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 48c | 46.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 46c | 44.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed No | 63c | 43.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 62c | 41.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 40.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 62c | 37.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 72c | 35.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 57c | 34.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 33.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 58c | 31.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 45c | 30.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 37c | 29.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 29.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 26.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 66c | 25.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 24.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3f…a13cbacked Yes | 59c | 24.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 79c | 24.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…0969backed Yes | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f5…ee83backed Yes | 54c | 22.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 21.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 57c | 20.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 61c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.