NFL · resolved market
Will the Cowboys hire Kellen Moore as their next head coach?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6da4a58ee5ad25d1fca724be841b9e3173dcbfd483136cc8f2591f34b83195ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,118$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 56c | 262.96$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 14c | 219.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2135…f305backed Yes | 30c | 210.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 33c | 197.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 57c | 185.94$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 176.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 41c | 149$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 64c | 143.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 46c | 140.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 42c | 132.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 41c | 129.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 44c | 128$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked No | 65c | 97.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 74c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 59.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 53c | 56.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 41.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 49c | 39.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 43c | 28.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe526…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Cowboys hire Kellen Moore as their next head coach?this page
- Will the Cowboys hire Ben Johnson as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Cowboys hire Brian Schottenheimer as their next head coach?Yes won
- Will the Cowboys hire Deion Sanders as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Cowboys hire Joe Brady as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Cowboys hire Kliff Kingsbury as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Cowboys hire Mike Zimmer as their next head coach?No won
- Will the Cowboys hire Steve Sarkisian as their next head coach?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.