Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6db6e45e317fe9e33dcb9f6e5b4df5b4f43635752a59c02bed41d1b3f87a7530
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 6c | 802.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 800.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 464.7$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…079bbacked No | 65c | 459.79$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.79 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 65c | 308.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.55 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 39c | 271.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 240.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 226$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 34c | 220.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 37c | 216$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 178$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 69c | 163.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 146.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 34c | 145.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 137.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 127.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 122.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 115.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 113.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 22c | 108.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 108$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 106.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 34c | 101.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 101$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 63c | 96.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 32c | 94.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 20c | 88.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 80.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 30c | 76.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 62c | 72.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 64.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 74c | 60.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 63c | 59.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 67c | 58.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 53.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 32c | 50.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 48.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed No | 61c | 44.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 40.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 70c | 39.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 36.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 36.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 35.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 27.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 56c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 56c | 18.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…1398backed No | 66c | 17.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.