TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,628
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,752

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,628 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1838…29b4backed No1c1,394$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5996313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No2c867.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.751,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No6c731.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9318441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No29c307.79$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.243,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes74c306.25$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.345148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes44c292.2$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.5528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes43c283.42$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.965,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7663757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes33c202.6$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.099,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked No55c180.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c178$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.345,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf055…ccddbacked No20c169$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.258950.6%45 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes45c168.63$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4849854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No71c162.53$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.42,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No55c137.9$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2665353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed No57c120.18$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685151%26 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No54c110.41$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.335,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes56c106.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7714043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes40c99.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9925935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes53c94.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0261365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes45c94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.388245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes33c91.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.933,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes42c90.67$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No26c90.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.827,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xeae5…33c1backed Yes45c88.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.89944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes37c85.87$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.125946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No55c83.89$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.142,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No67c83.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes47c79.6$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2422746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes50c77.38$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6956543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes46c71.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.831,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No16c71.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.811,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No14c70$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x823d…2db3backed Yes43c70$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.91338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No55c68.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9a96…cf5cbacked Yes29c67.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.825141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No27c63.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.921,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No40c57.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.131050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No25c54.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8480957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No34c53.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.782,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No32c53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No54c52.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1657264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes48c52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2576936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.652,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.517644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes45c49.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.252147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f6…f7e6backed No48c49.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c49.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4953353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No52c49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.481,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No46c48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8749543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4526142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4760…9899backed Yes36c41.35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.355644.6%25 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes58c41$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.222369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2621339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes40c39.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4352828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2223673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc030…1398backed No54c39.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.152934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No64c39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9625358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No51c38.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6728441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4672952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes34c37.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No43c36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.654,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes35c34.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4361929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No68c34.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4962555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes43c33.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0310053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No59c33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.471,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98e9…bf91backed Yes43c33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.815536.4%20 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No54c31.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1248149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No58c31.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No45c30.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8481756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No65c30.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bc…c1b8backed Yes39c30.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.92,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…51cdbacked Yes50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No60c28.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.012,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.082,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No64c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0579255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No59c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.161,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes51c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7643842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf651…86b1backed Yes68c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.376157.4%35 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No68c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c21.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.541,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No69c21.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No52c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.972,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c20.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.119,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd01d…ee2fbacked No53c20.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.08366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c20.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.064,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1019848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No53c19.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3448743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes68c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No64c16.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.262,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.