Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6df7d14742fb0c08e93d7fe20747e0875ba0afce52c5bfe8bc0d013169fe7e51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 40c | 683.65$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.69 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 499.99$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 53c | 460$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.1 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 219.55$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 218.71$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 210.53$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 198.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 188.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 141.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 124.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 119.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 117.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 57c | 105.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 76.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 68.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed No | 47c | 64.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 45c | 61.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 60.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 66c | 55.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 45.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 48c | 43.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 42.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 51c | 34.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 30.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 73c | 25.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…c577backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 66c | 24.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 70c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 19.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 71c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C or higher on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.