Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Burnley FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e0c78f0a3df2007ba6e3e4e25d9a48a0d64de96f2d9a8f73d716fdbbccb632c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 3,490$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.6 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 24c | 2,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 17c | 1,850$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 287 | 36.2%104 W · 183 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 19c | 1,792$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.58 | 306 | 66%202 W · 104 L | +57.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 24c | 599.2$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.81 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 495.99$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.81 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 18c | 485$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 77c | 440.41$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.29 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 23c | 339$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 75c | 330$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 4c | 307.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 24c | 292.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 193.8$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 328 | 22.3%73 W · 255 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…efeebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…2beabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba9…6baabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 98.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Burnley FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
- Will Burnley FC win on 2025-10-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.