MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e56f1f0eaa4be093887454d3b34d048b329bbbb0ba0a5f0f466fa9bcdd4ca4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 47c | 2,126$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.09 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 47c | 1,553$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 1,057$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 1,020$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 850$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 717.35$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.15 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 53c | 660.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.67 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 579.74$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.69 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 60c | 474.62$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 456.73$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.66 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 62c | 381$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 38c | 233.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 40c | 231.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 27c | 167.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.24 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7b…46d3backed Under | 41c | 127.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 21c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 49c | 86.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 74c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 65.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 61.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 26c | 50.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 45c | 44.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 41.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 65c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…9ce7backed Over | 48c | 33.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 29.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…eea0backed Over | 57c | 23.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 66c | 19.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Under | 68c | 18.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.