Us Politics · resolved market
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e96f73e3d41d73080bfedcd5c64e868bc788e476c94aea7791f433232ad8da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaeb7…d83abacked No | 79c | 46,746$36,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,816.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7873…5acebacked Yes | 21c | 46,746$9,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,816.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 12c | 11,295$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.42 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 14c | 2,638$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.69 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 18c | 1,124$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.16 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 25c | 1,080$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.2 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 873$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…2fbebacked No | 78c | 451.33$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 77c | 405$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 387.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 20c | 310$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 307.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 295$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 77c | 281$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked Yes | 24c | 269$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed No | 77c | 220.34$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 24c | 210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 12c | 187.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 22c | 156.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…112bbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 22c | 126.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60af…10cfbacked No | 80c | 108.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da2…59e7backed Yes | 19c | 107.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…c77fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5654backed No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 78c | 74.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 26c | 72.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5e…0a10backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked No | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 29c | 40.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde81…0732backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c9…00b8backed No | 71c | 26.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…6d33backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e4…b364backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.