Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ead89cd8ae2af30d4c6e9783f547e996cbefa9bba66cc09c85ee05c888413db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 67c | 3,800$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.94 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 0c | 3,204$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 1c | 2,718$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked No | 42c | 1,439$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.12 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed No | 79c | 653.67$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.21 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 15c | 510.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 21c | 343.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 335.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 324.43$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 21c | 293$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 68c | 273.3$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 57c | 257.54$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 243.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 23c | 231.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 4c | 223.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 12c | 211.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 208$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 186$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 178.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked Yes | 14c | 164.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 29c | 157.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 148.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 33c | 147.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 35c | 142.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 67c | 126.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 33c | 124.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 33c | 102.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 97.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 96.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 94.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 33c | 88.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 32c | 79.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 28c | 79.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 33c | 76.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 33c | 73.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 33c | 73.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 15c | 73.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 69.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 69.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…8fe0backed Yes | 17c | 68.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 25c | 67.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 66.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 33c | 64.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 33c | 58.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 33c | 58.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 57.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 51.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 32.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3e…df5dbacked No | 54c | 29.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed Yes | 53c | 29.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 58c | 28.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…44cbbacked No | 49c | 21.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.