Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a3931d3e6823df5236c756c602861158ad71045b8d20fb8a2d3e5c45f0d0929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 71c | 1,730$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.93 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 47c | 926.23$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.96 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 351.62$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 224.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 31c | 222.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.26 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 196.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 195.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 73c | 178.08$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 169.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 73c | 167.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 57c | 164.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 155.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 16c | 153.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 148.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 28c | 140.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 37c | 101.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 100.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 27c | 99.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 94.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 92.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 75c | 91.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 46c | 72.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 38c | 71.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 66c | 71.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 63.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 62.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 35c | 61.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 80c | 60.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 32c | 58.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 70c | 56.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 49c | 49.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 45.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 38.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 34c | 38.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 37.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 37.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 43c | 36.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked No | 35c | 33.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 31.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 70c | 25.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 69c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 70c | 20.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 49c | 20.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 63c | 16.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 15.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.