Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ed041df80b0a2845496762aba669a85c94675804f9f2f6c92c74b3243fe6d21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 47,185$25,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,164.47 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Over | 47c | 41,593$19,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,044.16 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 47c | 8,523$4,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,503.04 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 4,584$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.2 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 47c | 4,239$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,236.92 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Over | 40c | 2,165$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.85 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Under | 53c | 2,086$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.44 | 290 | 43.4%126 W · 164 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…72a3backed Under | 53c | 1,412$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.39 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 45c | 956.06$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.1 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec4…8bc9backed Under | 54c | 915.75$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 80c | 827.51$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.5 | 427 | 67%286 W · 141 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 53c | 678.6$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.84 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776c…9f69backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.59 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 33c | 327.1$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…afaebacked Over | 43c | 234.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Under | 57c | 227.09$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Over | 80c | 223.76$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a02…36b4backed Over | 48c | 202.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 47c | 202.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 371 | 46.4%172 W · 199 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 32c | 163.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.79 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 53c | 133.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…2302backed Under | 54c | 131.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8f…aebfbacked Over | 45c | 110.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…8919backed Over | 48c | 104.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 104$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…b046backed Under | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Over | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Over | 46c | 94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Over | 47c | 80.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…6b32backed Over | 46c | 72.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Under | 54c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…2db7backed Over | 47c | 56.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +8.3wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 54c | 54.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Over | 32c | 46.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc28b…3683backed Over | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Over | 47c | 40.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Over | 41c | 40.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Under | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9c…fd70backed Over | 48c | 25.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 53c | 25.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 58c | 22.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Over | 47c | 21.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Under | 54c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 52c | 21.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 524 | 50.8%266 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 54c | 18.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International PlayoffsNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- First Blood in Game 1?Nigma Galaxy won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.