Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f1fe89e2e9b71384684aba5a0ab7d659314cc37139c9c9705531a8c00cc231c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 2,564$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 651.44$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.99 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 493.37$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 29c | 468.72$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.56 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 79c | 411.76$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 274.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 30c | 203.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.87 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…699ebacked No | 71c | 194.57$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.47 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 189.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 45c | 167.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 159.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 132.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 111.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 100.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 96.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 28c | 88.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 15c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 82.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 80.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 69c | 64.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 62.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 59.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 47.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 25c | 47.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 42.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…4328backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 29.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7a…66e8backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 74c | 25.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 24.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 23.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 21.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 21.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 19.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 18.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…90bcbacked No | 76c | 16.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 70cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.