Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83c1be3babeb6c0ab525e058919b08ad52ef7e4ddc2ba382f684771380ca26bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,750$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,159$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.21 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 35c | 1,154$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.13 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 1,077$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 7c | 600$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 347.68$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 345.7$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.84 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 298$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 267.28$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 206$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 25c | 203.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 31c | 189$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 185.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 75c | 168.04$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 159.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 158.75$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 154.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 144.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 37c | 139.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60b…6788backed Yes | 39c | 122.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 67c | 113.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 34c | 98.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 96.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 36c | 95.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 93.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 82.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 62.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 44c | 58.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 30c | 57.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 29c | 54.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 53.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 47.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 42.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 41.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 34c | 37.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 43c | 33.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 31.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…352abacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 67c | 28.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 44c | 24.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972e…e926backed Yes | 43c | 23.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 23.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 21.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 64c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 64c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 19.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.