TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,817
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,817 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes2c1,750$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.014,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes27c1,159$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.211,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes35c1,154$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.1358922.8%134 W · 455 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No66c1,077$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.752,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa493…1b55backed Yes7c600$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.326933.1%89 W · 180 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes44c347.68$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No64c345.7$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.841,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No62c298$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.242,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c267.28$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.278,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No59c206$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.142,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes25c203.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5137417.4%65 W · 309 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes31c189$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.729427.9%82 W · 212 L+18.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c185.12$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No75c168.04$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6553855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No60c159.6$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.325,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No73c158.75$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.294,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c154.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.815,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No62c144.32$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.167,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes37c139.76$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6242820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60b…6788backed Yes39c122.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed No67c113.96$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.399038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes34c98.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.561,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No65c96.28$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.021,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed Yes36c95.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.478458.3%49 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No73c93.73$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.256,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No66c91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c82.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.26,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No62c80$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.81,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes43c74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.054,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c62.86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.184,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.694,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0240132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes44c58.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.851,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bed…bf63backed Yes30c57.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.396048.3%29 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes29c54.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.757623.7%18 W · 58 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No63c53.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.662,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fd…15a0backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.517637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2218131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.375,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2215534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1815950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158028.8%23 W · 57 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No63c48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.761,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c47.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.783,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No62c45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0513845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No62c42.04$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.182,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No64c41.28$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No63c41.27$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.273,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.825954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes34c37.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7775546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159921.2%21 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bdc…e076backed Yes43c33.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.386141%25 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No67c31.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.362,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.164859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6338830.2%117 W · 271 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1577851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9e…352abacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c29.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No67c28.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.317252.8%38 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No63c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3615850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.337532.8%123 W · 252 L+36.4wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+109.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x335f…51c4backed Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32634.6%9 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes44c24.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7910023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972e…e926backed Yes43c23.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No64c23.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.333,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0845675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No62c21.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2865965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No76c21.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.142,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.771,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No64c20.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2944567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No64c20.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2928866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.471649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.829354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c19.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.922,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No65c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.390555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.